[Marxism] "Violence flares as Ahmadinejad wins vote"

[Fred Feldman]

The possibility of various types of vote fraud are real. However, we should
not ignore that the Islamic Republic political machine and Ahmadinejad
himself still have a sizable base of support. The reporters who saw Mousavi
sweeping all before him almost never got out of Tehran, never went to the
villages and quite likely many never even did interviews in South Tehran,
where the city's poor are concentrated. Still, I think the Stratfor judgment
that the Islamic Republic system is beginning to crack politically is likely
to prove accurate.
Fred Feldman

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31238321/

Violence flares as Ahmadinejad wins vote 
Official results show landslide for incumbent; pro-reform rival alleges
'fraud'
NBC News and news services
updated 11:08 a.m. ET, Sat., June 13, 2009
TEHRAN, Iran - Riot police battled with protesters Saturday as officials
announced that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won a landslide election
victory. His opponent denounced the results as "treason".

The violence broke out as Iran's interior minister said that Ahmadinejad had
gained 62.6 percent of the vote.

NBC News reported "violent clashes" between rock-throwing protesters and
police in the center of Tehran.

Thousands of demonstrators gathered after a statement posted online by
pro-reform candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi urged his supporters to resist a
"governance of lie and dictatorship." 

NBC News reported that some of the protesters shouted "Death to the
dictator, death to Ahmadinejad" and "We want our votes back". 

Several injuries were reported after police officers hit protesters with
batons. Witnesses said some demonstrators appeared to have been arrested.

Black-clad police also gathered around key government buildings and mobile
phone text messaging was blocked in an apparent attempt to stifle one of the
main communication tools by Mousavi's movement.

Earlier, outside the Interior Ministry, which directed Friday's voting,
security forces set up a cordon. The results had flowed quickly after polls
closed showing the hard-line president with a comfortable lead - defying
expectations of a nail-biter showdown following a month of fierce
campaigning and bringing immediate charges of vote rigging by Mousavi. 


'I won't surrender'
Ahmadinejad had the apparent backing of the ruling theocracy, which holds
near-total power and would have the ability to put the election results into
a temporary limbo. 

Mousavi, who became the hero of a powerful youth-driven movement, had not
made a public address or issued messages since declaring himself the true
victor moments after polls closed and accusing authorities of "manipulating"
the vote. 

"I'm warning that I won't surrender to this manipulation," said the Mousavi
statement on the Web on Saturday. "The outcome of what we've seen from the
performance of officials ... is nothing but shaking the pillars of the
Islamic Republic of Iran sacred system and governance of lie and
dictatorship." 

He warned "people won't respect those who take power through fraud" and
called the decision to announce Ahmadinejad winner of the election was a
"treason to the votes of the people." 

The headline on one of Mousavi's Web sites: "I wont give in to this
dangerous manipulation." Mousavi and key aides could not be reached by
phone. 


It was even unclear how many Iranians were even aware of Mousavi's claims of
fraud. Communications disruptions began in the later hours of voting Friday
- suggesting an information clampdown. State television and radio only
broadcast the Interior Ministry's vote count and not Mousavi's midnight
press conference. 

Nationwide, the text messaging system remained down Saturday and several
pro-Mousavi Web sites were blocked or difficult to access. Text messaging is
frequently used by many Iranians - especially young Mousavi supporters - to
spread election news. 

Based on ministry figures, around 75 percent of the country's 46.2 million
eligible voters went to the polls, many of which were jammed packed Friday
with people waiting several hours to cast their ballots. 

At a press conference, Mousavi declared himself "definitely the winner"
based on "all indications from all over Iran." He accused the government of
"manipulating the people's vote" to keep Ahmadinejad in power and suggested
the reformist camp would stand up to challenge the results. 

"It is our duty to defend people's votes. There is no turning back," Mousavi
said, alleging widespread irregularities. 

Mousavi's backers were stunned at Interior Ministry's results after
widespread predictions of a close race - or even a slight edge to Mousavi. 

"Many Iranians went to the people because they wanted to bring change.
Almost everybody I know voted for Mousavi but Ahmadinejad is being declared
the winner. The government announcement is nothing but widespread fraud. It
is very, very disappointing. I'll never ever again vote in Iran," said
Mousavi supporter Nasser Amiri, a hospital clerk in Tehran. 


Bringing any showdown into the streets would certainly face a swift backlash
from security forces. The political chief of the powerful Revolutionary
Guard cautioned Wednesday it would crush any "revolution" against the
Islamic regime by Mousavi's "green movement" - the signature color of his
campaign and the new banner for reformists seeking wider liberties at home
and a gentler face for Iran abroad. 

The Revolutionary Guard is the military wing directly under control of the
ruling clerics and has vast influence in every corner of the country through
a network of volunteer militias. 

In Tehran, several Ahmadinejad supporters cruised the streets waving Iranian
flags out of their car windows and shouting "Mousavi is dead!" 

Mousavi appealed directly to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
to intervene and stop what he said were violations of the law. Khamenei
holds ultimate political authority in Iran. "I hope the leader's foresight
will bring this to a good end," Mousavi said. 

Mousavi said some polling stations were closed early with people still
waiting to vote, that voters were prevented from casting ballots and that
his observers were expelled from some counting sites. 

Iran does not allow international election monitors. During the 2005
election, when Ahmadinejad won the presidency, there were some allegations
of vote rigging from losers, but the claims were never investigated. 

'Robust debate'
The outcome will not sharply alter Iran's main policies or sway major
decisions, such as possible talks with Washington or nuclear policies. Those
crucial issues rest with the ruling clerics headed by the unelected
Khamenei. 

But the election focused on what the office can influence: boosting Iran's
sinking economy, pressing for greater media and political freedoms, and
being Iran's main envoy to the world. 

Before the vote count, President Barack Obama said the "robust debate"
during the campaign suggests a possibility of change in Iran, which is under
intense international pressure over its nuclear program. There has been no
comment from Washington since the results indicated re-election for
Ahmadinejad. 

The race will go to a runoff on June 19 if no candidate receives more than
50 percent of the vote. Two other candidates - conservative former
Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaei and moderate former parliament
speaker Mahdi Karroubi - only got small fractions of the votes, according to
the ministry.

The Associated Press, Reuters and NBC News contributed to this report.