[Marxism] Peak oil redux

[S. Artesian]

No doubt at some point in the future the oil will be depleted, but that is 
NOT what happened before, and that is not what is happening to explain the 
movement of oil prices.  Didn't happen in the 70s, 80s, 90s, 98, 2001, 2003, 
2007, 2008, or 2009.

The world is in no danger of running out of oil.  The issue is return on 
investment.

We've been through this a hundred times, and a hundred and one times I will 
repeat:

1. the data used by peak oil theorists is selective, and purposefully skewed 
to support not theories but an ideology.

2. worldwide reserves have not declined with increased production but have 
in fact increased.

3. yes, oil production peaked in the US in 1970, and that was a function of 
the rate of profit.  It also peaked in Venezuela, and that marked the big 
shift to the importation of Saudi oil,  where production costs where 40% of 
the world average.  Production costs in the Saudi fields have not increased 
markedly.  As a matter of fact, production costs in the "difficult" areas of 
the Norwegian fields of the North Sea are below $10/barrel.

4. Venezuela's production declined beginning in 1970s despite the fact that 
known, proved ORDINARY [as opposed to the super-heavy Orinoco basin 
reserves] more than doubled between the 1970s and 1990s.

5. What does not apply to oil, peak theory, applies even less, or doesn't 
apply even more to natural gas, natural gas liquids, methyl hydrates.

6.  The issue for the bourgeoisie is profitability.  Reserves are defined 
ECONOMICALLY, not geologically.

7.  You want to factor the US silk road strategy and the war in Iraq?  I 
agree.  The war in Iraq was determined not by the shortage of oil, but by 
its overproduction, with the decline in prices and ROI of 2002 providing the 
final push.  The war was designed not to hoard supplies, but to drive the 
price up.

8.  We live in a different world now?  No we don't.  We live in the world of 
capitalist accumulation.
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Intense Red" <intnsred at golgotha.net>
To: <sartesian at earthlink.net>
Sent: Friday, June 12, 2009 2:19 PM
Subject: Re: [Marxism] Peak oil redux