[Marxism] ABC Tuesday, June 2, at 9 p.m. ET. 'Earth 2100': the Final Century of Civilization?

[Barry Brooks]

What makes ABC think scaring people even more is possible?

10% of today's consumption could provide use-value if we could only
limit work to doing only the jobs we really need to do...  The goal is the
product not the process.  Labor is surplus relative to resources.

Socialism can end wage dependence, and support those who are
busy living outside of wage-slavery. With socialism a 90% cut  in CO2
emissions would be possible now.

Barry


http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Earth2100/story?id=7697237
*'Earth 2100': the Final Century of Civilization?*


    Planet at Risk: Experts Warn Population Growth, Resource Depletion,
    Climate Change Could Bring Catastrophe in Next Century


        By ALEXA DANNER

*May 29, 2009*

It's an idea that most of us would rather not face -- that within the 
next century, life as we know it could come to an end 
<http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Earth2100/story?id=7678011&page=1>. Our 
civilization could crumble 
<javascript:openPopup('http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=7692969',%20'popup',%201010,%20700,%20'status=1,%20resizable=1');>, 
leaving only traces of modern human existence behind.

It seems outlandish, extreme -- even impossible. But according to 
cutting edge scientific research, it is a very real possibility. And 
unless we make drastic changes now, it could very well happen.

Experts have a stark warning: that unless we change course, the "perfect 
storm" of population growth, dwindling resources 
<javascript:openPopup('http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=7683605',%20'popup',%201010,%20700,%20'status=1,%20resizable=1');> and climate 
change 
<javascript:openPopup('http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=7107698',%20'popup',%201010,%20700,%20'status=1,%20resizable=1');> has 
the potential to converge in the next century with catastrophic results.

*Watch "Earth 2100," a two-hour television event, Tuesday, June 2, at 9 
p.m. ET.*

In order to plan for the worst, we must anticipate it. In that spirit, 
guided by some of the world's experts, ABC News' "Earth 2100," 
<http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Earth2100/story?id=7678011&page=1> hosted 
by Bob Woodruff <http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/WoodruffReports/>, will 
journey through the next century and explore what might be our 
worst-case scenario.

But no one can predict the future, so how do we address the 
possibilities that lie ahead? Our solution is Lucy, a fictional 
character devised by the producers at ABC to guide us through the twists 
and turns of what the next 100 years could look like. It is through her 
eyes and experiences that we can truly imagine the experts' worst-case 
scenario -- and be inspired to make changes for the better.


        The Future: It's Nearer Than We Think

By 2015, there are expected to be hopeful signs. Experts 
predict alternative energy solutions 
<javascript:openPopup('http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=6719352',%20'popup',%201010,%20700,%20'status=1,%20resizable=1');> that 
are currently in their infancy will gain momentum. Windmills may sprout 
up everywhere. Off the coast of Scotland, a sprawling wave farm will 
harvest renewable energy from the ocean. Vatican City will meet all of 
its energy needs with solar power. And the U.S. will produce cleaner, 
more fuel efficient vehicles 
<http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=7622306&page=1> in accordance 
with newly unveiled emissions guidelines.

But will it be enough? In 2015, global demand for fossil fuels could be 
massive and growing, but experts say oil will be harder to find and far 
more expensive to consume.

"We have no new source of energy on the horizon that's currently capable 
of being developed on a large enough scale to replace the supply of oil 
in any near- term framework," says Michael Klare, professor of peace and 
world security studies at Hampshire College.

If the cost of gasoline skyrockets, few may be able to afford to 
maintain the lifestyles to which we've grown accustomed. There may be a 
mass exodus from the suburbs, as driving gas-fueled cars becomes nearly 
impossible economically. But will that convince us to change our ways?

"Until we have a crisis of some kind, I don't think we're going to be 
motivated to make the really deep changes in the way we use energy, the 
technologies we use, the density of our cities, our travel patterns," 
says Thomas Homer-Dixon, a political science professor and author of 
"The Upside of Down."

The imagined crises in Lucy's futuristic world come in the forms of 
earthshaking hurricanes spawned by over-reliance on climate-damaging 
coal and other nonrenewable resources. What if climate change in our 
world is actually much closer than we think? Many experts say we have to 
start seriously reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2015, or we may 
pass a point of no return.

"If we continue on the business as usual trajectory, there will be a 
tipping point that we cannot avert," says John P. Holdren, science 
advisor to President Obama. "We will indeed drive the car over the cliff."

Scientists predict that by 2020, global catastrophes may well begin to 
accelerate. The human population is expected to explode and animal 
species may be dying off at a rapid rate. As the world becomes more 
chaotic, the costs of mending it would grow more and more daunting. By 
2030, gradually rising temperatures may have shifted rainfall patterns 
around the globe, and many experts warn much of the world may face 
serious shortages of our most basic need -- water.

"By 2030, two-thirds of the world's population will be under water 
stress," says Janine Benyus, science writer and founder of the 
Biomimicry Institute.

Some cities will have the forethought to plan ahead. Starting in 2009, 
San Diego began building huge desalination plants to turn ocean water 
into an abundance of fresh water. But in the middle of the country, 
people may be running out -- and there may well not be funds to 
transport it from the coast. If and when a place like Tucson, Ariz., 
runs dry, people will panic.

"Something that will catch people's attention is the first rich city 
that just runs out of water," says Homer-Dixon.

Americans may well meet these challenges with resourcefulness and work 
hard to keep the threats at bay. But even as things stabilize on the 
home front, experts predict hundreds of thousands of environmental 
refugees may begin streaming through Europe, fleeing droughts and 
famines. Millions of Latin Americans could align on the U.S. border 
seeking entry, and some could encounter violent resistance.

"I can't imagine the horrors that will take place on the border as 
millions of refugees try to get into the United States," says Klare.


        History Repeats Itself

In the history of Earth, there have been five mass extinctions in which 
at least half the species on the planet disappeared. Scientists believe 
the extinctions were brought on by natural disasters -- massive volcanic 
eruptions, rapid climate changes and meteors hitting Earth.

Today, scientists say we are in the middle of a "sixth extinction" -- 
and for the first time, it's being caused by one species -- us. It seems 
inconceivable that we could do so much damage to our planet that we 
actually cause society as we know it to collapse. But historical 
precedent shows that it is, in fact, a very real possibility.

"Every society that collapsed thought it couldn't happen to them," says 
Joseph Tainter, an expert in anthropology and societal collapse. "The 
Roman Empire thought it couldn't happen. The Maya civilization thought 
it couldn't happen. Everyone thought it couldn't happen to them. But it 
did."

These populations grew too much and exhausted their resources -- and 
their climate suddenly changed. People were forced to fight each other 
for what little was left or face starvation. Entire societies broke down.

"Civilizations in the past have lost the fight," says climatologist 
Heidi Cullen. "They have collapsed as a result of the inability to deal 
with several different events going on at once. I think the takeaway is 
that honestly, we are not that special."


      Our Current Course: Where We're Headed

If we remain on the current course, it's estimated that by 2050, the 
world's population may have increased by at least half and many parts of 
the world may be facing grave shortages of resources. The Southwest U.S. 
could face an extended drought, while pests threaten crops. As global 
sea levels rise, much of the world map could be redrawn. People will 
begin to migrate back to urban areas in search of better lives.

There would likely still be beacons of green living -- massive solar 
farms may produce enough power to light up entire regions of the 
country. Towns like Greenburg, Kan., decimated in 2007 by a tornado and 
rebuilt to be completely self-sustaining, may inspire communities around 
the globe do the same. But unless the rest of the world gets on board -- 
and fast -- some experts warn it may just not be enough.

"A few hundred years down the line, they'll look back and say the dark 
ages began with the twenty-first century," says E. O. Wilson, an 
award-winning evolutionary biologist and professor at Harvard University.

But just how bad could things get? In one scenario, scientists imagine 
that by the year 2100, immense storms irreparably damage major 
metropolises. Streets, subway tunnels, and buildings would flood and 
begin to rot. The stagnant water would breed filth and displace 
residents, forcing them into homelessness. Poverty levels and death 
rates could skyrocket. A new and virulent strain of disease might 
develop -- then mutate and spread around the globe, potentially claiming 
tens of thousands of lives.

In this scenario, as the crisis explodes, looting grows rampant, major 
world powers go to war over water, and millions of people die from 
famine. Civilization literally collapses under its own weight.