Kein Betreff

Palestinians are confident they know what the Israelis will do. If
Netanyahu can get Obama to introduce a degree of ambiguity into the
situation, Israel could regain the advantage of uncertainty.

The problem for Netanyahu is that Washington is not interested in
having anything unpredictable happen in Israeli-Palestinian
relations. The United States is quite content with the current
situation, particularly while Iraq becomes more stable and the Afghan
situation remains unstable. Obama does not want a crisis from the
Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush. The fact that Netanyahu has a
political coalition to satisfy will not interest the United States,
and while Washington at some unspecified point might endorse a peace
conference, it will not be until Israel and its foreign minister
endorse the two-state formula. 

Netanyahu will then shift to another area where freedom of action is
relevant -- namely, Iran. The Israelis have leaked to the Israeli
media that the Obama administration has told them that Israel may not
attack Iran without U.S. permission, and that Israel agreed to this
requirement. (U.S. President George W. Bush and Israeli Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert went through the same routine not too long ago,
using a good cop/bad cop act in a bid to kick-start negotiations with
Iran.)

In reality, Israel would have a great deal of difficulty attacking
Iranian facilities with non-nuclear forces. A multitarget campaign
1,000 miles away against an enemy with some air defenses could be a
long and complex operation. Such a raid would require a long trip
through U.S.-controlled airspace for the fairly small Israeli air
force. Israel could use cruise missiles, but the tonnage of high
explosive delivered by a cruise missile cannot penetrate even
moderately hardened structures; the same is true for ICBMs carrying
conventional warheads. Israel would have to notify the United States
of its intentions because it would be passing through Iraqi airspace
-- and because U.S. technical intelligence would know what it was up
to before Israeli aircraft even took off. The idea that Israel might
consider attacking Iran without informing Washington is therefore
absurd on the surface. Even so, the story has surfaced yet again in
an Israeli newspaper in a virtual carbon copy of stories published
more than a year ago. 

Netanyahu has promised that the endless stalemate with the
Palestinians will not be allowed to continue. He also knows that
whatever happens, Israel cannot threaten the stability of Arab states
that are by and large uninterested in the Palestinians. He also
understands that in the long run, Israel's freedom of action is
defined by the United States, not by Israel. His electoral platform
and his strategic realities have never aligned. Arguably, it might be
in the Israeli interest that the status quo be disrupted, but it is
not in the American interest. Netanyahu therefore will get to
redefine neither the Palestinian situation nor the Iranian situation.
Israel simply lacks the power to impose the reality it wants, the
current constellation of Arab regimes it needs, and the strategic
relationship with the United States on which Israeli national
security rests. 

In the end, this is a classic study in the limits of power. Israel
can have its freedom of action anytime it is willing to pay the price
for it. But Israel can't pay the price. Netanyahu is coming to
Washington to see if he can get what he wants without paying the
price, and we suspect strongly he knows he won't get it. His problem
is the same as that of the Arab states. There are many in Israel,
particularly among Netanyahu's supporters, who believe Israel is a
great power. It isn't. It is a nation that is strong partly because
it lives in a pretty weak neighborhood, and partly because it has
very strong friends. Many Israelis don't want to be told that, and
Netanyahu came to office playing on the sense of Israeli national
power. 

So the peace process will continue, no one will expect anything from
it, the Palestinians will remain isolated and wars regularly will
break out. The only advantage of this situation from the U.S. point
of view it is that it is preferable to all other available realities.


This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with
attribution to www.stratfor.com.

Copyright 2009 Stratfor.


...................End Forwarded Message..................




Comradely yours, 
Lüko Willms 
Frankfurt/Main 
/ Lueko.Willms at T-Online.de