[Marxism] Still decoupled - so far (1)

[S. Artesian]

It appears that "decoupling" here comes down to the belief that the BRIC 
economies will "weather the storm."  Hell, I expect the developed economies 
will weather the storm, too.

The real question is  coupled or decoupled can the BRIC capitalist economies 
avoid the "storms" generated by their economic contradictions and the 
linkage of those contradictions through the world markets to the problems of 
advanced capitalism?

In that regard we should keep several things in mind:  1. agricultural 
productivity-- which is quite low, and in some countries, particularly 
India, has been worsening for about 5 years  2. slower growth in 
manufacturing employment-- according to China's National Bureau of 
Statistics, manufacturing employment actually peaked in 1995 and then 
declined through 2002 (last year for which statistics are published).  Hindu 
Business Online, in April 2007, published a study which showed continued 
decline in manufacturing employment.  3. The abundant foreign exchange 
reserves of the BRIC countries are actually an index to a dangerous mix of 
"underdevelopment" and overproduction, as the the lack of agricultural 
productivity, infrastructure stability, and the reduced domestic market 
combine to constrain profitable capital investment, or at least investment 
that can keep up with cash flows, revenues, export earnings, and labor force 
expansion/urban migration.  Cash is trash, sometimes.4. Yes, their foreign 
trade with each other is expanding, and is still significantly below trade 
with their advanced capitalist customers/suppliers. 5. I think it's wishful 
thinking, and a misplaced wish at that,  to argue that China and the other 
new big economies will help stave off global depression.  If there is 
economic contraction deep enough to warrant the term "depression" in the US, 
the EU, and Japan, then China and the BRI will lose their export markets, 
their sources of FDI, and their links up the value chain.  Then their 
internal economic, social contradictions will overwhelm their capitalist 
development, just as occurs in the rest of the capitalist world.

One more comment on "decoupling," the term was/is also used to describe the 
"coming"  EU parity with, and independence from, US economic strength.  The 
very same Finanical Times had an article last week talking about the end of 
that part of the "decoupling" myth, and indeed its reversal.

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Marvin Gandall" <marvgandall at videotron.ca>
To: <sartesian at earthlink.net>
Sent: Monday, September 01, 2008 9:10 AM
Subject: [Marxism] Still decoupled - so far (1)


Although the report below states that "hopes that emerging markets could
power ahead regardless – a theory known as decoupling – now look misguided",
the evidence it presents suggests otherwise:

1. Demand for commodities is still strong in China and other rapidly
industrializing nations outside the core OECD countries; 2. The BRIC's, in
particular, have abundant foreign exchange reserves; 3. their banks have
limited exposure to the bad debt plaguing their American and European
counterparts, and  4. a steadily growing percentage of their foreign trade
is with each other, easing their dependence on the advanced capitalist
countries. While some smaller, heavily-indebted and highly export-dependent
countries could be pulled under by the financial crisis and economic
downturn in the West, indications are that China and the other big new
economies should stay afloat and help stave off a global depression.