[Marxism] A new NEWSWEEK Poll underscores Obama's racial challenge.

[Dbachmozart at aol.com]

CAMPAIGN  2008
The White Stuff

A new NEWSWEEK Poll underscores Obama's racial  challenge.
By Jonathan Darman | Newsweek Web Exclusive
May  23, 2008 | Updated: 7:41  p.m. ET May 23, 2008


Even as he closes  in on the Democratic nomination for the presidency, Sen. 
Barack Obama is  facing lingering problems winning the support of white 
voters--including  some in his own party. In a new NEWSWEEK Poll of 
registered 
voters, Obama  trails presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain 40 
percent 
to 52  percent among whites. Sen. Hillary Clinton, Obama's challenger for the 
 
Democratic nomination, also trails McCain among white voters but by a  
smaller 
margin, 44 percent to 48 percent. (For the complete results, click  here).

Among voters overall, however, Obama fares better, tying McCain 46  percent 
to 46 
percent in a hypothetical match-up. (That's down slightly,  within the margin 
of 
error, from the last NEWSWEEK Poll, conduc ted in late  April, in which Obama 
led 
McCain 47 percent to 44 percent). In that contest,  he is boosted by a strong 
showing among nonwhites, leading McCain 68 percent to  
25 percent (Clinton leads McCain 65 percent to 25 percent among nonwhites).  
But 
even this result shows some of the electoral challenges facing Obama in  a 
year 
when Democrats generally appear to hold an electoral  advantage--boasting a 
15 
point advantage in generic party identification  over Republicans, 53 percent 
to 
38 percent. Clinton fares slightly better  against McCain: 48 percent to 44 
percent (within the margin of error). She  enjoys this slight edge even 
though 
Obama leads Clinton 50 percent to 42  percent as the choice of registered 
Democrats for the party's nomination.  Clinton's white support is unusually 
high: 
at a comparable point in the 2004  election, Democratic nominee John Kerry 
received the support of 36 percent  of white voters, compared to George W. 
Bush's 
48 percent, and in June of  2000, Bush led Al Gore 48 percent to 39 percent.

Obama's race may well  explain his difficulty in winning over white voters. 
In 
the NEWSWEEK Poll,  participants were asked to answer questions on a variety 
of 
race-related  topics including racial preferences, interracial marriage, 
attitudes toward  social welfare and general attitudes toward 
African-Americans. 
Respondents  were grouped according to their answers on a "Racial Resentment 
Index."  Among white Democrats with a low Racial Resentment Index rating, 
Obama 
beat  McCain in a hypothetical match-up 78 percent to 17 percent. That is  
virtually identical to Clinton's margin in the category, 79 percent to 13  
percent. But among white Democrats with high scores on the Racial Resentment  
Index, the picture was very different: Obama led McCain by only 18 points  
(51 to 
33) while Clinton maintained a much larger 59-point lead (78 to  18).
Who exactly are these high Racia l Resentment Index voters? A majority,  61 
percent, have less than a four-year college education, many are older (44  
percent were over the age of 60 compared to just 18 percent under the age of  
40) 
and nearly half (46 percent) live in the South.

Confusion over  Obama's religious background may also be hindering his 
ability to 
attract  white support. Asked to name Obama's faith, 58 percent of 
participants 
said  Christian (the correct answer), compared with 11 percent who answered  
Muslim, 22 percent who did not know and 9 percent who said something else.  
Obama's name could be contributing to the confusion; 18 percent of white  
Democratic voters say they judge the Illinois senator less favorably because  
of 
his name, compared to only 4 percent of white Democrats who say it makes  
them 
judge Obama more favorably.

While the NEWSWEEK Poll clearly  suggests a lurking racial bias in the 
American 
electorate, the role of race  in presidential politics may be diminishing. In 
2000, only 37 percent of  voters thought the country was ready for a black 
president. Now, 70 percent  of voters think a black candidate like Obama 
could 
win the White  House.

Methodology Statement
The NEWSWEEK Poll was conducted May 21-22  by Princeton Survey Research 
Associates. It is based on telephone interviews  with 1,205 registered voters 
nationwide and has an 
overall margin of  sampling error of 3.5 percentage points. Among Democrats 
and 
Democratic  leaners, the margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
 
 

All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second,  it is 
violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." Arthur  
Schopenhauer (1788-1860)



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