[Marxism] A toothless tiger

[Louis Proyect]

Independent.co.uk
Stalled assault on Basra exposes the Iraqi government's shaky authority

By Patrick Cockburn
Friday, 28 March 2008

The Iraqi army's offensive against the Shia militia of the radical 
cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in Basra is failing to make significant headway 
despite a pledge by the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to fight 
"to the end".

Instead of being a show of strength, the government's stalled assault is 
demonstrating its shaky authority over much of Baghdad and southern 
Iraq. As the situation spins out of Mr Maliki's control, saboteurs blew 
up one of the two main oil export pipelines near Basra, cutting by a 
third crude exports from the oilfields around the city. The 
international price of oil jumped immediately by $1 a barrel before 
falling back.

In Baghdad, tens of thousands of supporters of Mr Sadr, whose base of 
support is the Shia poor, marched through the streets shouting slogans 
demanding that Mr Maliki's government be overthrown. "We demand the 
downfall of the Maliki government," said one of the marchers, Hussein 
Abu Ali. "It does not represent the people. It represents Bush and Cheney."

The main bastion of the Sadrist movement is impoverished Sadr City, 
which has a population of two million and is almost a twin city to 
Baghdad. The densely packed slum has been sealed off by US troops. "We 
are trapped in our homes with no water or electricity since yesterday," 
said a resident called Mohammed. "We can't bathe our children or wash 
our clothes."

The streets are controlled by Mehdi Army fighters, many of whom say they 
expect an all-out American attack, though this seems unlikely since the 
US says that an attack on the Shia militias is a wholly Iraqi affair.

In Basra, Iraqi forces have cordoned off seven districts but appear 
stalled in their effort to dislodge the Mehdi Army fighters. Masked 
gunmen in some cases have captured or seized abandoned Iraqi army 
vehicles and painted pro-Sadrist slogans on their armour.

A co-ordinated mortar bombardment struck the main police base in the 
city beside the Shatt al-Arab waterway and there was heavy shooting in 
the main commercial street of Iraq's southern capital. An Interior 
Ministry source said that 51 people had been killed and more than 200 
wounded in three days of fighting in Basra. There was an attempt to 
assassinate Basra's police chief in which three of his bodyguards were 
killed by a bomb.

Mr Maliki's surprise offensive against the Mehdi Army is likely to have 
repercussions far beyond Iraq. The Americans must have agreed to the 
attack though they had previously praised the six-month ceasefire 
declared by Mr Sadr on 29 August and renewed in February as being one of 
the main reasons why violence had fallen in Iraq. Although Mr Sadr has 
said the truce is continuing it is ceasing to have much meaning.

President George Bush praised Mr Maliki yesterday saying he faces a 
"tough battle against militia fighters and criminals". He said that the 
Iraqi Prime Minister had taken a bold decision "in going after the 
illegal groups in Basra".

But the rapid increase in violence may puncture optimism in the US over 
the "success" of the surge in leading to a turning point in the 
five-year-long war.

The Green Zone, the heavily fortified centre of American power in Iraq, 
was wreathed in smoke yesterday as it was struck by rockets and mortars 
fired from Shia neighbourhoods. In a further blow to the belief that the 
surge has restored law and order, one of the two Iraqi spokesmen for the 
Baghdad security plan, which is at the heart of the surge strategy, was 
kidnapped and three of his bodyguards killed before his house was set on 
fire. The victim was Tahseen Sheikhly, a Sunni who often appeared with 
American officials to proclaim the success of the surge.

Clashes are now taking place across Iraq and most of the Shia districts 
in Iraq. In the middle of last year a Mehdi Army commander said that his 
militia controlled 80 per cent of Shia Baghdad and 50 per cent of the 
capital as a whole. This is probably only a slight exaggeration. There 
has also been heavy fighting in Kut on the Tigris, where 44 have been 
killed and 75 wounded, and in Hilla on the Euphrates where 60 people 
died. In past months the Sadrists have been locked in a struggle for 
Diwaniya, also on the Euphrates south of Baghdad, where they have been 
fighting police units controlled by Badr, the militia of the other great 
Shia party, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI).

When he first came to power, Mr Maliki balanced between ISCI and the 
Sadrists but has steadily become closer to the first party and has shown 
growing hostility to Mr Sadr. The last great battle between the Sadrists 
and the Iraqi government backed by the Americans was in Najaf in 2004 
and was ended by the intervention of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani who 
wanted the Sadrists humbled but not crushed. He also did not want to see 
the Shia community divided into warring factions. It is possible that 
the Grand Ayatollah may seek to mediate again but Mr Maliki may find it 
difficult to compromise after his claim that he will win control of Basra.

The government has about 15,000 soldiers and the same number of police 
in Basra but this is not a great number in a city of two million. The 
police are closely linked to the militias and are unlikely to prove a 
resolute ally against the Mehdi Army.