[Marxism] From the bureau of electoral cretinism: Iowa Caucuses

[Joaquin Bustelo]

There were several notable things about the Iowa Caucuses: 

a) Turnout was substantially higher than expected, apparently setting
records for both parties. It is true that turnout in primaries and caucuses
is ALWAYS said to be higher than expected, but this time, numbers went along
with the claims, as well as spontaneous anecdotal statements by caucus goers
and organizers about turnouts completely exceeding their expectations, like
50 people crowded into the living room of a house that traditionally hosted
a meeting of a couple of dozen; standing-room-only in a school auditorium
that could hold more than the 400 expected because more than 600 turned out,
and so on. 

b) Turnout especially among younger voters and first-time caucus goers for
the Democrats was higher than in the past, according to the entry poll
results.

c) Hillary Clinton suffered a humiliating defeat, coming in third. Her
spinmeisters point out that less than a quarter of a percent separated her
from Edwards's results, which is true. Unfortunately for her, she was just
shy of 29.5% and Edwards just over it, so the way the TV graphics computers
tell the tale, he got 30%, she got 29%, re-enforcing her loss.

{Especially delicious --to me-- is that these percentages aren't exactly
terribly meaningful. Richardson, for example, had 7-8% support (according to
the unpublished part of the exit poll figures) but wound up being credited
with 2% in the final results (2% of what you ask? Of something called state
convention delegate equivalents, an invention of the media cartel that
decides who wins elections). The rest of his supporters were in precinct
caucuses where Richardson wasn't "viable" (didn't have 15% of the caucus
members). THEY shifted to other candidates, mostly Edwards, but also some
Obama. Edwards beat Hillary by a hair thanks to the fact that he was the
SECOND choice -- not FIRST -- of a lot of folks.}

d) Obama's results among the younger age groups were astonishing.
Fifty-seven percent of those under 30 supported him; and 42 percent of those
30-40. Given the demographics of Iowa --95% white-- this shows that racist
attitudes have a much reduced hold among younger people when the media
doesn't go out of its way to whip them up. Hillary had the support of a
humiliating 11% of the under-30's; and Edwards an embarrassing 14%. 

e) Huckabee won big among the creationist, flat-earth wing of the Republican
Party. Like, duh...

f) Romney, the Hillary Clinton of the Republican candidates, with positions
carefully triangulated and measured to the millimeter on the basis of polls
and political "professionals," lost big.

g) The effect of the Huckabee win is to open up the field in the Republican
contest, because only the utterly clueless or irremediably suicidal think
Huckabee can win in November, and he's taken Romney down a more than a few
notches. But he's also torpedoed Giuliani showing that the flat-earthers do
matter in Republican politics.

h) The effect of the Obama win is to put Hillary on life support.
Fortunately or unfortunately, she's got plenty of that -- money by the
trainload, and the backing of the most popular U.S. politician in living
memory, Bill Clinton. But if Obama succeeds in driving a stake through the
heart of the Clinton campaign in New Hampshire ... then it should be a wild
ride. Among those who Edwards did very well with were --surprise--
self-described Democratic conservatives in Iowa. The elephant in the room is
Obama's "electability" ... and if Edwards is smart, he will have his
operatives deny at every turn that is the issue, and never mention it
himself, stressing differences on "issues" and letting the TV images tell
the tale.

i) Finally, IF the stories about the turnout and the youth vote turn out to
be largely true, and repeated elsewhere, we're at the beginning of an
interesting political process that may take a few years to play out. If
Obama's speech writers, spinmeisters, and image-makers HAVE succeeded in
tapping into something in the zeitgeist, an elemental, inchoate anxiety for
change, especially pronounced among younger people, then almost certainly it
isn't Obama that's created it, but by giving it an initial focus, it MIGHT
be the start of something much bigger. 

*  *  *

I wrote this in the pre-dawn hours of Friday morning, after getting home
from being involved in covering this, and after a couple of Cuba Libres, but
seeing as the caucuses hadn't sparked any discussion on the list, I decided
to follow my usual practice, and not post until I'd looked at it in the cool
light of day. I got up yesterday with barely enough time to brew a cup of
coffee (Bustelo, of course) before heading off to work, and so I'm sending
it now.

Joaquin