[Marxism] Delegates, delegates ... frolm the Bureau of Electoral Cretinism

[Joaquin Bustelo]

On Feb 2, 2008, at 6:22 PM, dave.walters at comcast.net wrote:

> We're starting getting bombarded with Obama/Clinton ads this last week 
> here in California...My prediction Clinton over Obama by 4 points.


To which Shane Mage replied:

"That is--a draw! The difference between 48-52 and 52-48 is maybe 4-6
delegates, isn't it?"

Actually, no, it depends on where your 52% (or 48%) comes from.

That is why, although more than 20 states are voting or holding caucuses,
this "Super-Duper" Tuesday may not yet decide things. 

That's especially true because we should remember it's the delegate math
that counts. 

The Republicans are using "winner take all" per congressional district and
statewide in most states. If McCain performs as advertised, his lead after
Tuesday will not yet be a mathematical lock, but will be imposing. 

But the Democrats have proportional representation, the exact details of
which vary state by state. In California, each Congressional District has
3-6 delegates, depending on Democratic vote in elections in the past. To win
4 out of 6 delegates, you need almost 70% of the vote; but to win 3 of 5 or
2 of 3 you need only one more vote than your competitor. 

Obama in particular seems to be consciously targeting a series of northern
California 3- and 5-delegate districts, and if this tactic works he could
conceivably get a higher percentage of the delegates than the vote. On the
other hand if the Black vote is more concentrated in a few districts than
the white, he might even win statewide but lose a majority of the districts
and thus the delegates.

In addition to these 241 district delegates, 129 more delegates are
allocated statewide based on proportion of the vote, with a 15% minimum to
get any delegates. (This 15% "viability threshold" applies nationwide in all
states and districts and is why the second tier of candidates has dropped
out -- they saw they could not get to this level of support and accumulate
significant numbers of delegates).

To lock the nomination, a candidate needs 2000 delegates, roughly, but only
about 3200 delegates will be elected. (And half of those will be decided
Tuesday night).

Another 800 are "superdelegates" (members of congress, governors, members of
the National Committee and some others) who can support whomever they want.
Hillary had an early lead on those, but Obama is catching up, and these
superdelegates can always change sides. I think right now it's about 150 for
Hillary, and almost 100 for Obama, with the gap tending to close.

In addition we have the monkey wrench that nearly 400 delegates -- those
from Florida and Michigan -- supposedly aren't coming as punishment for
jumping the gun on the primary date. 

You'd have to know California's demographic and political map like the back
of your hand to be able to say how it is likely to shake out. 

But in general terms:

Obama will almost certainly take Georgia and Alabama, because of the high
Black vote in Democratic primaries, and Georgia is one of the larger prizes,
with around 90 delegates, as well as his home state of Illinois, which has I
think something like 160 delegates. IF "Obama mania" continues, he will
trounce Hillary in these three states and win delegate pluralities there. It
all depends on the turnouts by Black voters and young voters.

Clinton likewise will take New York and its quasi-satellites Connecticut and
New Jersey, where she is, in essence what used to be called a "favorite son"
candidate (as Obama is in Illinois), i.e., a well-liked local politician. 

Of the other states, if Clinton wins California and some others by a few
percent, then the thing will continue, as she won't have a decisive enough
lead on delegates. If she loses California and, say, Massachusetts or a
couple of other states she may not even be much behind in delegates, but it
will be a huge political setback and might set off a stampede towards the
Obama camp. Especially as the next two big events are the Louisiana
primaries (which I assume Obama will win but I haven't yet looked up to the
post-Katrina Black registration figures) and caucuses in Washington state,
where, assuming Obama is able to mobilize his youth base, he could also do
very well. Those are on Saturday.

If Hillary beats Obama by the sorts of margins most polls indicate (10%+ in
California and Massachusetts; more in other states; narrow Obama victories
in GA and AL), then I don't see how he can ultimately be victorious.

Joaquin