[Marxism] Fwd: siddharth reports on nepal maoists

[Ruthless Critic of All that Exists]

          The Hindu, April 2, 2008

          Transition time: the past is over, only the future counts

          Siddharth Varadarajan

 For king and commoner, revolutionary and reformist, the tide of change
 in Nepal is irreversible. But if the Maoists know there's no going back to
 the gun, the erstwhile establishment must also be prepared to live with
 the inclusive republic the people want.

 -------

 In private, Maoist leaders say they expect to win between 30 and 35 per
 cent of the popular vote

 Thanks to a radical election system, the composition of the CA will be
 fairly representative of Nepal's diversity

 ---------

 It is 7 a.m. in Kathmandu and I am sitting with a group of young Maoist
 party cadres at the office-cum-residence of Prachanda, waiting for the
 Maoist leader to arrive for a scheduled interview (he had hit the
 campaign trail at 6 a.m.). The cadres are in their early 20s, a few of
 them still sporting the green fatigues in which they waged "Peoples'
 War" against Nepal's king and his army. The television is tuned to the
 Kantipur channel, which is relay ing 'Breaking News' from Rupandehi
 district near the border with India with such an exaggerated sense of
 urgency that the comrades stop whatever they are doing and crowd
 around the TV set. Information is sketchy but the Kantipur reporter on
 the site is conveying details of a 'jhadap', or clash between the security
 forces and Maoist activists, over the latter's detention of a truck
 allegedly carrying a clandestine load of weapons destined for the army.

 While the former PLA combatants watched the news, I watched their
 faces. There was neither panic nor the ex-soldier's pride at the 'jhadap'
 — which eventually turned out to be a relatively minor matter — but the
 look of concern and even worry was unmistakable. These were not the
 faces of people who are getting ready to go back to the hills or mount
 the barricades of some bloody urban insurrection, as some in the
 Kathmandu elite believe. The chapter of armed struggle is closed and
 the political and military reality today is such that even if they wanted to,
 the Maoists would not be able to take to the gun again.

 "The Peoples' War was needed to break the back of the old feudal
 structure of monarchy," senior Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai said,
 "but we made an assessment that given the international reality and the
 position of Nepal vis-À-vis India we have to adopt a new path. And that
 is why we went in for the peace process and elections."

 In forging an agreement in 2005 with the Seven Party Alliance led by
 the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified
 Marxist-Leninist), or UML, the Maoist leadership was taking a huge
 gamble. They traded the relative security of a military stalemate for the
 insecure prospect of political victory in a free and fair election. And part
 of that gamble involved making themselves vulnerable to a catastrophic
 stab in the back, initiated either by a vengeful King Gyanendra, the top
 echelons of the Nepal Army, or an outside player like the United States.
 That is why, as the date for the Constituent Assembly election draws
 nearer, the Maoists are battening down the hatches and taking no
 chances. There is talk of palace-inspired targeted assassinations of its
 top leadership. Or of blasts or communal violence.

 In private conversations, Maoist leaders say they expect to win between
 30 and 35 per cent of the popular vote and not the 50 per cent they
 speak of publicly. But for the moment, what the party fears more than
 underperforming at the polls is the possibility of the elections being
 postponed or cancelled. "Any delay will be a disaster for Nepal," says
 Prachanda.

 The anxiety about Gyanendra is shared by other parties. "Why would
 the king want the CA when we have pledged to abolish the monarchy at
 the very first sitting?" Home Minister K.P. Sitaula asked. It was possible
 that the Palace would try and stir up trouble but all the parties would
 have to unite to deal with this danger, he said. "We want to show the
 world that it is possible to get rid of the monarchy through peaceful and
 democratic means."

 Mr. Sitaula may be clear, but across the country there are many
 ordinary Nepalis who doubt the sincerity of the NC's conversion to the
 republican cause, or who regret that it came so late in the day. Earlier
 this year, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala floated the 'baby king'
 idea. His daughter Sujata, who is contesting the elections from Sunsari
 district in the Tarai, says she is in favour of a constitutional monarchy.
 Mr. Sitaula parried a question about Sujata Koirala's stand by recalling
 a speech Girijababu had made several years ago warning the palace
 about the consequences of autocratic rule: "One day, people will say,
 'There was a time when Nepal had a king'," the Congress patriarch had
 predicted. "That day is coming," said Mr. Sitaula. "It is useless and
 meaningless to try and save the monarchy."

 But the monarchy will try and save itself. The suspicion is that the
 palace has links with some of the Madhesi extremist groups as well as
 with some organisations of the janajatis like the Limbus. Many
 politicians with monarchist connections have left the NC or the UML
 and joined some of the Madhesi electoral parties. This week's
 mysterious bomb blast in a mosque in Biratnagar bears the hallmarks
 of a provocation. And people in Nepal are bracing for more.

 "The only problem for the king is that if some terrible incident happens,
 everyone will know he is behind it. And it would be difficult to guarantee
 his physical safety after that," said a senior UML leader.

 For Nepal's establishment parties, especially the NC and the UML,
 resolving the king's future is the least of the problems. Once the CA is
 convened, a far more difficult challenge will be dealing with the rising
 expectations of Nepal's diverse peoples for an inclusive and just
 political and economic system.

 Thanks to a radical election system of a kind not seen anywhere else in
 the world, the composition of the CA will be fairly representative of
 Nepal's diversity. For the 335 seats up for grabs under the proportional
 representation (PR) system, the law requires parties to nominate at
 least 50 per cent women, 13 per cent Dalits, 31.2 per cent Madhesis
 and 37.8 per cent from the "oppressed/indigenous communities," that
 is, the janajatis. Parties had a free hand in distributing the ticket for the
 240 first-past-the-post (FPTP) seats, but a large number of Madhesi
 and janajati candidates are bound to emerge victorious. Many of them
 will have party affiliations. But they will not be able to insulate
 themselves from the crush of popular expectations.

 Even if the Madhesi and ethnic parties do not do well, the NC and the
 UML will have to transcend their reluctant federalism and come good
 on their promises for the restructuring of Nepal. The federalism of the
 Maoists is more instinctive since a major plank of the movement has
 been its promise to create ethno-linguistic provinces with not just
 autonomy but the right to self-determination. The Maoists committed a
 strategic blunder in 2006 by dropping their original demand for a full PR
 system of elections because of the intransigence of the NC and the
 UML. This allowed new political forces to emerge based on exclusive
 and even chauvinist ethnic politics.

 Whatever the origins of the recent Madhesi movement, the Tarai is in
 ferment and will not settle for second-class status. Nor will the janajatis.
 If the CA is not prepared to design federal structures which guarantee
 autonomy and dignity to all regions of Nepal and economic justice for
 the poor and the landless, new fault lines and conflicts will emerge.

 The future, to paraphrase Anna Akhmatova, is already casting its
 shadow on the present. Rather than the bogeyman of a new Maoist
 insurrection, it is the willingness of the NC and the UML to embrace the
 aspirations of Nepal's excluded peoples which should be the real cause
 for worry.