[Marxism] Mugabe Said to Be Negotiating Possible Exit

[Louis Proyect]

NY Times, April 2, 2008
Mugabe Said to Be Negotiating Possible Exit
By THE NEW YORK TIMES

HARARE, Zimbabwe — Advisers to President Robert G. Mugabe of Zimbabwe 
are in talks with the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, amid signs 
that Mr. Mugabe may be preparing to resign, a Western diplomatic source 
and a prominent Zimbabwe political analyst said Tuesday. The 
negotiations about a possible transfer of power away from Mr. Mugabe 
come after he apparently concluded that a runoff election would be 
demeaning, a diplomat said.

A resignation by Mr. Mugabe, one of Africa’s longest serving leaders, 
would be a stunning turnabout in a country where Mr. Mugabe has been 
accused of consistently manipulating election results to maintain his 
lock on power.

There is no guarantee the negotiations will succeed and the situation 
could still unravel. But a Western diplomat and a political analyst said 
the opposition was negotiating with Zimbabwe’s military, central 
intelligence organization and the country’s prisons chief.

“The chiefs of staff are talking to Morgan and are trying to put into 
place transitional structures,” said John Makumbe, a political analyst 
and insider in local politics who has spoken in the past in favor of the 
opposition.

A spokesman for Mr. Tsvangirai, George Sibotshiwe, said: “I don’t know 
anything about such meetings.”

Mr. Tsvangirai scheduled a news conference for 5 p.m. local time (10 
a.m. Eastern time).

The diplomats said the joint chiefs had urged the negotiations after 
becoming convinced that there was no palatable alternative to a transfer 
of power and that a run-off following Saturday’s presidential election 
would lead to defeat for Mr. Mugabe. One Western diplomat said the heads 
of the armed forces advised Mr. Mugabe on Monday to engineer a second 
round run-off in the presidential race but Mr. Mugabe responded that a 
run-off would be a humiliation to him.

More than three days after the vote, the government had still not 
released any results of the presidential balloting. Under Zimbabwe’s 
election rules, a runoff would be required if no candidate got more than 
50 percent. However, Reuters quoted unidentified sources in Mugabe’s 
party as saying it had projected Mr. Tsvangirai got 48 percent of the 
vote, versus 43 percent for Mr. Mugabe.

The nation has lingered in political limbo since Saturday, because of 
the election commission’s silence on the results of the presidential 
race, raising concerns that Mr. Mugabe was intent on rigging the outcome.

But with the talks now underway, the political ground seemed to be 
shifting rapidly, away from Mr. Mugabe.

Mr. Mugabe, 84, has led Zimbabwe since 1980. Crafty and ruthless, he is 
not a man likely to easily give up his hold on power, analysts, 
diplomats and Zimbabweans have long contended.

That has left this nation, and a good bit of the world, wondering how he 
will survive what seems a repudiation by his countrymen, most of whom 
have become unemployed under his rule. The nation now suffers from an 
inflation rate of 100,000 percent.

Mr. Tsvangirai’s party, the Movement for Democratic Change, had already 
used the few parliamentary results posted so far to declare victory.

Tendai Biti, the party’s secretary general, said Monday that unofficial 
tallies of more than half the votes showed Mr. Tsvangirai with 60 
percent and Mr. Mugabe with 30 percent.

“We are at the moment of liberation from a dictator,” Mr. Biti said. 
However, the government had warned the opposition about declaring 
victory prematurely.

Graham Bowley contributed reporting from New York.