[Marxism] Colombia and Venezuela

[Anthony Boynton]

Much more than the lives and freedom of imprisoned
FARC soldiers, and hostages held by the FARC is at
stake in the current dance over a possible exchange.

President Hugo Chaves of Venezuela is working to
broker a deal that would exchange FARC members for
FARC held hostages, but would also begin a peace
process aimed at ending the armed conflict between the
Colombian government and the FARC - the largest, best
armed, best organized, and oldest guerrilla movement
in the Americas.

The FARC seems to be serious about finding a path to a
peace agreement, too. This is why Raul Reyes, the
FARC's second in command and most important public
spokesperson in the last decade, has agreed to meet
with Chaves in Caracas on October 8.

President Alvaro Uribe Velez of Colombia has so far
gone along with this process, dspite puuting numerous
obstacles in its path. Most importantly he has
adamantly refused to consider demilitarizing any part
of Colombian territory for negotiations and/or an
exchange. 

Why would Uribe consider starting a serious peace
process with the FARC? Why would the FARC consider
entering serious negotiations with Uribe?

1. In two terms of office Uribe has failed in his goal
of defeating the FARC (and the ELN) militarily.
Prospects for a military victory in the short and
medium run are nil.

2. Uribe, and his right wing coalition, are faced with
the possibility of losing the elections next month to
the Polo Democratico Alternativa. In just one month
there will be elections for Mayors, city councils, and
Congress which will show which way the wind is blowing
for the much more important 2010 presidential
elections. If the Uribista coalition loses in 2010 it
would be a disaster for many of the leaders of
Colombia's right wing.

3. The FARC is potentially a BIG problem for the Polo.
The Polo is split over the issue of the FARC. Publicly
this debate has a lot of heat with little meat, but
behind the scenes the issues are very real.

The FARC has strongly criticized Maria Emma Mejia,
Lucho Garzon, and Gustav Petro for being the coddled
babies of the ruling oligarchic who would be welcomed
in power by the oligarchy. As far as it goes in this
regard, the FARC is on the money. 

The two wings of the Polo have responded to the FARC's
attacks differently. 

Petrov has denounced the FARC for being politically
isolated and essentailly out of touch with reality.
His critique of the FARC is half-right. They are
politically isolated with almost no popular support
anywhere in Colombia - a totally different picture
than the one which existed twenty years ago. 

However, the FARC is not out of touch with reality. It
is desperately seeking some way to get out of the dead
end street it finds itself in (due to its past defeats
and its own political mistakes.)

The left wing of the Polo has been mostly silent int
he debate, with party president Gaviria serving as its
spokesman, accusing Petrov of being too harsh on the
FARC, but not disagreeing in any way with the
substance  of Petrov's attack.

The real issue is simple: the left wing of the Polo
thinks that once the FARC is demobilized in a peace
process, it's legitimate place in the Colombian
political spectrum would be within the Polo.

The right wing of the Polo is totally opposed, not for
reasons of political principle (since many of them
were  in the M-19 guerrilla movement), but for reasons
of electoral calculations. Integrating the FARC into
the Polo would, they calculate, be an electoral
disaster for the Polo in 2010 - causing the Polo to
lose millions of votes, and almost certainly the
elections.

Uribe Velez's calculations are probably the same.

A peace process which allowed the FARC to run
candidates in 2010, either as part of the Polo or
competing with the Polo, may be the only way the
Uribistas can win those elections.

Hugo Chaves comes out of the process as the big winner
any way you cut the cake. Which might be a good thing
for the Colombian left... in the long run.

Anthnoy


       
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