[Marxism] Gains in Iraq?

[Louis Proyect]

(The NY Sun is an extremely reactionary but influential newspaper. I 
fully expect the Democrats to begin to soften their attacks on the war 
in Iraq in line with this article. That is why it would be so important 
to have somebody like Cynthia McKinney on the ballot in 50 states.)

Gains in Iraq Alter Race for 2008
'Momentum' Is Cited by Key General

BY NICHOLAS WAPSHOTT - Staff Reporter of the Sun
November 2, 2007
URL: http://www.nysun.com/article/65735

The sharp decline in the number of American and Iraqi casualties in the 
Iraq war over the last five months is set to defuse one of the key 
Democratic election issues and bolster those presidential candidates who 
have opposed a quick withdrawal from the country.

Figures issued yesterday showed the number of Americans killed in Iraq 
during October fell to 39, from 65 in September, 84 in August, and 78 in 
July. In the previous three months, between April and June, American 
deaths reached more than 100 a month, according to the independent Web 
site Iraq Coalition Casualty Count.

The number of Iraqi security forces and civilians killed has also fallen 
sharply. In October, there were 679 Iraqi dead, compared to 848 in 
September and 1,674 in August. Between April and July, Iraqi deaths were 
between 1,345 and 1,980 a month.

The figures suggest that the surge in American troops, in which 28,500 
extra fighting forces were dispatched to Iraq, is working, and confirm 
the view of the top military commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, 
in evidence before Congress in September, that, while military progress 
in Iraq remains "uneven," he believes the objectives are "largely being 
met."

The slump in Iraq casualties is changing the nature of the political 
debate over the war in America and should offer some respite from the 
criticism of anti-war protesters to Senator McCain, the Republican 
presidential hopeful who advocated the surge and was the first to back 
the president's plan, and Senator Clinton, the front-runner in the 
Democratic race, who has steadfastly refused to alter her view that 
there can be no quick reduction in American forces. The no. 2 American 
commander in Baghdad, Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, offered a hesitant 
welcome to the figures yesterday. "I believe we have achieved some 
momentum," he said. "Although it is not yet irreversible momentum, this 
positive momentum has set the conditions for political accommodation, 
economic development, and basic services to progress."

However, there was no complacency among senior military figures in 
Baghdad. "We are not declaring victory. It's too early," a spokesman for 
General Petraeus, Colonel Steve Boylan, said yesterday in a remark 
reported by McClatchy Newspapers.

The apparent success of the surge is in line with President Bush's aim 
of reducing the violence in Iraq so that progress can be made in the 
passing of legislation that would allow power sharing and equitable oil 
revenue distribution between the opposing Sunni and Shiite communities.

Iraq's minister for security, Shirwan al-Waili, said yesterday that the 
surge was proving successful in reducing the violence in Iraq, and in 
particular in Baghdad, where the internecine butchery has been at its 
most intense. "Because of the security plan, the violence has reduced. 
Baghdad is much safer," he said on Iraqi state television. But the 
improved casualty figures also will alter significantly the terms of the 
presidential election. The unpopularity of the war had been set to 
dominate not only the presidential race but also the congressional 
elections next November, with Republicans loyal to the president's Iraq 
surge strategy most at risk from voter disenchantment.

"Until recently the conventional wisdom was that the 2008 election would 
be dominated by the Iraq war," a fellow at the Brookings Institution and 
an adviser to Senator Obama of Illinois, Philip Gordon, told the 
Financial Times. "But the situation in Iran is moving much more quickly, 
and that is where President Bush's decisions could have consequences for 
whoever takes over in January 2009."

Since the drop in Iraq deaths beginning three months ago, Mr. Obama and 
John Edwards have softened their outright opposition to the war and 
joined with Mrs. Clinton in conceding that a permanent American troop 
presence may be needed well into the next presidential term. The success 
of the surge undermines the argument of such presidential candidates as 
a former New Mexico governor, Bill Richardson, who as a key element of 
his appeal has demanded the immediate withdrawal of American troops from 
Iraq.

The improved figures also help maintain loyalty among wavering 
Republican members of Congress who are anxious about keeping their 
seats. "Because casualties have fallen so far, it is futile to try to 
persuade moderate Republicans to vote with us to compel a withdrawal" of 
American troops, an unnamed Democratic staffer told the Financial Times.

The decline in fatalities in Iraq is attributed to a number of factors. 
Sunni tribes in western Anbar province and elsewhere have joined 
government and coalition forces to fight against Al Qaeda; the mullah 
blamed for many of the abductions and killings around Baghdad, Moqtada 
al-Sadr, has suspended operations of his Shiite militia, the Mahdi Army; 
sectarian killings have been reduced; security walls have been built 
around Baghdad's sectarian neighborhoods; and strict ID checks have been 
introduced, including biometric testing.