[Marxism] Administration response indicates that NIE report does not register US-Iranian alliance against Iraq insurgency

[Paula]

Fred wrote

> So, as I understand it, Louis insists that the NIE report registers not a
> setback for the war drive against Iran, but a firm alliance between Iran 
> and
> the US to defeat the Sunni insurgency at all costs.

And here is another interpretation, which does not necessarily conflict with 
Louis's - that a deal with Iran, through the mediation of China, is an 
attempt to cut Russia out

"Prominent American strategic thinker and former national security advisor 
Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote after a recent visit to China that it is "timely 
and historically expedient" for Washington to enter into a strategic 
dialogue with Beijing regarding applying their shared experience in dealing 
with the North Korean nuclear problem to the potential crisis with Iran.

"Brzezinski highlighted three points. First, in "wide-ranging private 
conversations", Chinese leaders impressed on him their worry about the 
financial and political fallouts of a US-Iran collision. Second, Chinese 
leaders pointed out to Brzezinski that Iranian denials of a nuclear weapons 
program in fact create a window of opportunity for Washington to contrive a 
face-saving arrangement for an internationally sanctioned, non-threatening 
Iranian nuclear program. "In China's view, the United States should avoid 
being drawn into tit-for-tat salvos" with the Iranian leadership, but should 
rather focus on a formula that "effectively forsakes the allegedly unwanted 
nuclear option". Third, China could help break the US-Iran stalemate, but 
the US should be "more active in the negotiating process with Iran".

"China's motivations are completely self-centered. Beijing doesn't want its 
economic relationship with Tehran disrupted. Iran is a major supplier of oil 
to China. China intends to boost its bilateral trade with Iran to over 
US$100 billion annually in the near future. (There is no reason to doubt 
China's capacity to do so.) China supplies weapons and industrial products 
to Iran and participates in major projects, such as the Tehran metro.

"Interestingly, Brzezinski gave a logical explanation as to why the US and 
China should become equal stakeholders. He pointed out that cascading 
US-Iran tensions could cause a more dramatic shift in the global 
distribution of power than what the international system witnessed when the 
Cold War receded into history. He explained that unlike the US and China, 
Russia has an "uncertain role" in the Iran crisis. That is because Russia is 
an increasingly revisionist state, and denying Chinese and American access 
to Caspian and Central Asian oil is at the core of the Russian geostrategy. 
Also, Russia fears "potential Chinese encroachments on Russia's empty but 
mineral-rich eastern areas and American political encroachments on the 
populated western areas" of the former Soviet Union.

"Therefore, Brzezinski argued that unlike the US and China, Russia might 
even stand to gain from a political conflict in the Persian Gulf. Russia 
would certainly stand to gain out of a dramatic spike in oil prices, unlike 
the US and China, which would be badly hit. More important, high oil prices 
resulting from Persian Gulf tensions would leave Europe and China with no 
option but to depend heavily on Russian energy supplies. That is to say, 
"Russia would clearly be the financial and geopolitical beneficiary" of the 
Iran crisis."

Full text http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IL07Ak02.html

Paula