[Marxism] Administration response indicates that NIE report does not register US-Iranian alliance against Iraq insurgency

[Louis Proyect]

Fred Feldman wrote:
> Remember that when Iraq seemed to have collapsed before the US invasion,
> there was great enthusiasm for the idea that Iran was next. What slowed this
> down radically was not just the relative strength politically and socially
> of Iran, but the emergence of the Sunni resistance in Iraq, along with the
> Mahdi army and related expressions among the Shia.  Does Louis thin the
> Iranian bourgeois leaders could not notice this because, not being Marxists,
> they did not " think in class terms.

Exactly. The Iranian bazaari bourgeoisie is a classic middle layer that 
mediates between its own subordinate classes and the imperialist 
bourgeoisie. In order for Iran to be able to defend itself successfully 
against imperialism, it needs a government that is based solidly on the 
popular classes. The best defense against an American invasion of Iraq, 
btw, would have been an open statement of resistance from the 
Iranian-backed movements in Iraq. Instead, SCIRI et al worked closely 
with the CIA.

The Independent (London)
June 16, 1998, Tuesday
US will fund opposition to Saddam

BYLINE: Andrew Marshall in Washington

THE UNITED STATES will announce a new strategy for boosting the Iraqi 
opposition to Saddam Hussein this week.

Propelled by Congress and anxious to fill the vacuum left by the 
disintegration of previous policies, the US will announce a programme of 
$ 5m (pounds 3.1m) to assist the opposition. The plan is likely to 
include some support for Shia opposition groups based in Iran for the 
first time.

The US established the Iraq National Congress (INC) as the main channel 
for Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) support after the 1991 invasion of 
Kuwait. But relations with the INC deteriorated and support was switched 
to the London-based Iraqi National Accord. Both were effectively wiped 
out on the ground when Saddam's forces moved into Iraqi Kurdistan in 1996.

Since then, the opposition has fragmented with infighting and lack of 
resources and presence on the ground apparently dooming it to impotence.

But pressure has built up for a new policy. Congress has pushed for a 
more active stance to overthrow President Saddam and the existing policy 
of containment through weapons inspections and sanctions is starting to 
look threadbare.

Last month, Congress approved the $ 5m along with plans for a new radio 
station broadcasting to Iraq, and this week the administration is 
expected to announce how the cash will be spent.

The money will be overt rather than secret, and is likely to be put 
towards boosting the democratic credentials of the opposition. One 
possibility would be to support moves by the opposition to create a 
council of national unity, drawing together all the different factions. 
A meeting was held in London last February organised by the INA to 
enable the organisations to speak with one voice, and there have also 
been suggestions that something approximating a government in exile 
might be formed in London.

The US is anxious to demonstrate that it does not regard the current 
Iraqi regime as salvageable, as do many of its erstwhile allies in the 
Gulf War coalition. Instead, it will underline that it is working 
towards a new regime, formed from the democratic opposition. But with 
the evaporation of the opposition it has found it hard to claim that 
there is an alternative.

The US's discussions with the opposition have included for the first 
time a Tehran-based group, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in 
Iraq (Sciri). As the name might suggest, it has little in common with 
the US and has been working very closely with the Islamic regime in 
Iran. But alone of the opposition groups, it has ground forces in Iraq 
which harass Iraqi troops in the south of the country. It represents 
elements within Iraq's substantial Shia minority.

Contacts between the US and the Sciri have accelerated this year, with 
frequent trips by the movement's leader, Mohammed Bakir al-Hakim, to 
Kuwait, where US forces and aircraft are based. Hamid Bayati, the 
organisation's London representative, visited Washington last week and 
met representatives of the US government.

Relations between the US and Iran have warmed noticeably since the 
election of the moderate Mohammad Khatami as Iran's President last year. 
Iran and the US have few interests in common, but they do share a desire 
to limit Iraq's aggression.