[Marxism] Castro's illness

[Louis Proyect]

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1543828,00.html
Friday, Oct. 06, 2006
Castro Reported to Have Cancer
U.S. intelligence reports now say the Cuban leader's condition appears 
terminal, government officials tell TIME
By SALLY B. DONNELLY AND TIMOTHY J. BURGER/WASHINGTON

Ever since President Fidel Castro was sidelined for what was said to be 
abdominal surgery last July, Cuban officials have maintained that the 
country's leader will return to his post. ''We will again have him leading 
the revolution,'' said Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque just two days 
ago, speaking at an outdoor rally to protest the U.S. trade embargo against 
Cuba, according to the Communist Party daily newspaper Granma.

But U.S. officials tell TIME that many in the U.S. government are now 
convinced that Castro, 80, has terminal cancer and will never return to 
power. "Certainly we have heard this, that this guy has terminal cancer," 
said one U.S. official.

Of course, such intelligence reports could be wrong, and one official 
cautioned that definitive proof is nearly impossible for the U.S. to come 
by. Yet the fact that the Cuban government removed Castro from the public 
stage before his death could suggest that Castro and his would-be 
successors were aware of a terminal condition and wanted to gauge public 
reaction to his absence. "They got to see how people would react," says one 
U.S. official. "They have had a chance to see how things might work without 
out him functioning day-to-day."

The U.S. government has been preparing for Castro's departure for half a 
century. That doesn't mean that things will change much. Fidel's brother 
Raul, 75, has been acting president since Fidel went into the hospital and 
has given no indication that he will change the policies of the isolated 
Communist government that has tormented the U.S. since taking power in 
1959. Though he has until recently kept a very low profile, Raul Castro — 
not Fidel — was feted as the host of the non-aligned nations' summit on 
Sept. 15. Then Raul called a high profile meeting of the country's local, 
provincial and national leadership at what he called "this historic moment 
in our country's history." In another sign of his increasing prominence, 
two weeks ago Raul delivered his first televised national speech at the 
close of a trade union federation congress.

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http://www.counterpunch.org/landau10092006.html
October 9, 2006
Why Cuba Matters
Post-Castro Cuba

By SAUL LANDAU

Reporters and friends keep asking: "so what'll happen when Castro dies?"

"A big funeral in Havana," I reply with certainty.

One other sure thing: anti-Castro exiles in south Florida will throw a 
mammoth party. On July 31, Fidel revealed he would have surgery and ceded 
temporarily responsibilities to his brother Raul. Little Havana's streets 
erupted in celebration. Politically, Fidel again showed he has ability to 
induce obsession in his enemies, thus making it difficult for them to think 
clearly--apart from questions of bad taste. Fidel's stature will continue 
to cloud south Florida's political reality.

The Cuban American National Foundation appealed to Cuba's civilian 
population and military forces to rise up and overthrow the tyrannical 
regime. "Today Iraq; tomorrow Cuba!"

No uprising occurred. Indeed, despite loud headlines and lead stories in 
the U.S. mainstream media of impending crisis, Cubans behaved with calm 
when the man who has presided over their destiny for 47 and a half years 
went under the knife.

NPR reporter Tom Gjelten, in Cuba during the Non Aligned Movement meeting, 
predicted the next Cuban leader would have to fulfill the Cubans' demand 
for more consumer goods. Did he take a poll and forget to mention it? How 
did he determine how the population would react to the post-Fidel government?

The CIA shared the media's vapid ignorance on Cuba. Former Agency Cuba 
expert Brian Latell opined: "It cannot even be said with confidence that 
Raul [Castro] will want to be more than a transitional leader. Raul will 
not enjoy the pounding pressures and crises that make Fidel's adrenaline 
surge and typically induce his best thinking."

Latell never met Raul, or Fidel; nor has he visited Cuba.

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