[A-List] MR - The West's Aim in Libya:

[Nadja Tesich]

James and others,
Sorry  but I know all that.
Why are there no 'rebels' in Yugoslavia?
Because now they would not be screaming for'democracy'
because they know the farce and they are a colony.
 
Nobody would help them or pay for socialism.
All the rebels in North Africa were paid to repeat the same slogans.
Nadja

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> Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2011 18:53:23 +0000
> From: james.irldaly at ntlworld.com
> To: a-list at greenhouse.economics.utah.edu
> Subject: [A-List] MR - The West's Aim in Libya:
>
> MR - The West's Aim in Libya:
> Interview with Aijaz Ahmad
> by Prabir Purkayastha
>
> Prabir Purkayastha: If you really look at what is happening, what we
> have is a historical split between the east and the west, which could
> be the outline of what could emerge at least in the near future,
> unless Gaddafi has the strength to push his troops right up to
> Benghazi.
> Aijaz Ahmad The real issue -- Gaddafi can live without Benghazi --
> still is the oil. . . .
>
> Prabir Purkayastha: Ras Lanuf is in that sense critical.
>
> Aijaz Ahmad: Right, right. The refinery and the oil that is there in
> eastern Libya. . . . Anybody who can leave the battlefield has
> already left or will leave. Most of the work force has left. Much of
> the technical personnel has left. So there is going to be a great
> decline in the immediate production levels, whoever holds those
> things. So the fight really is over long-term control over the oil.
> It's really about oil; it's not about cities, as far as Gaddafi and so
> on are concerned.
>
> Prabir Purkayastha: It's also clear at the moment that Gaddafi has
> support of at least the Qadhafa tribe and certainly a section of the
> army, the core sections of the army, is with him, so he has the
> firepower required to hold on to a lot of Libya.
>
> Aijaz Ahmad: Look, Gaddafi's a terrible creature, so one shouldn't
> construe my comments as some sort of support for Gaddafi, but I think
> the media has played a dreadful role, and that includes Al Jazeera.
> People only from one side are being interviewed and projected and none
> from the other side.
>
> Gaddafi's support is far beyond his own tribe. There is a whole
> conglomeration of tribes, there's a class of people, their
> institutional strengths, and so on. I think there is very
> considerable strength in the regime, at the core of the regime. It
> goes far beyond his tribe, the civil support for him goes far beyond
> them.
>
> Prabir Purkayastha: It's also clear that the US, the Western powers
> ,would like to see Gaddafi go and take total control of Libya's oil. .
> . .
>
> Aijaz Ahmad: . . . A no-fly zone is not about flying aircrafts. It's
> about laying the groundwork for occupying at least certain parts of
> the country and for destroying the garrisons and fighting capacity on
> the ground. Robert Gates and others in charge of the American defense
> establishment have said that a no-fly zone really means a ground
> attack on the country. So that's what a no-fly zone really is about.
> It's not about some great air force that Gaddafi has because he
> doesn't. Part of this council that has been set up in Benghazi has
> called for a no-fly zone. They're saying: not intervention but a
> no-fly zone. A no-fly zone is an intervention. . . . The no-fly zone
> in Iraq never really touched Saddam Hussein's forces there, his
> arsenal. It was essentially over Kurdistan, mainly. But it didn't,
> sort of, hit centers. The military capacity of the Gaddafi regime is
> so limited that a couple of weeks of intensive bombing in the name of
> imposing a no-fly zone can take care of most of their arsenal and
> essentially enforce a stable division in the country.
>
> Prabir Purkayastha: So, you're saying: Beyond a no-fly zone, aerial
> bombardment and using the air force to partition the country -- that
> is basically the short-term strategic interest that the West might
> have -- and therefore controlling the eastern oil and leaving Gaddafi
> on the oil that is there on the western side.
>
> Aijaz Ahmad: What is not clear to me, in all of this, is what they'll
> do with the coastal regions and with the harbors -- that is to say,
> export pipelines, export abilities, and so on. It's not very clear
> what the game is in this no-fly zone there. Will they actually land
> troops on the coastal regions to take hold of the harbors? That is
> not clear. The idea that Americans should learn from Iraq, from
> Afghanistan, is a rational idea that I don't think flies very far in
> Washington.
>
> Prabir Purkayastha: In the sense that at least they should have learnt . . .
>
> Aijaz Ahmad: But they haven't.
>
> Prabir Purkayastha: . . . that removing Gaddafi may not be that
> difficult in this sense, but then they have to occupy Libya in order
> to continue to control the oil and see that it goes out, and that is
> going to be the much more difficult task. But what you're saying is
> that the U.S. and the West haven't learned too much.
>
> Aijaz Ahmad: They're heading towards creating an alternate government
> which they will recognize as the real government of Libya -- if they
> can. And now it appears that Saudi Arabia and their friends will back
> that. So, it may actually happen: that this supposed council that
> came out of thin air will be appointed the new government of Libya.
> So there really are no innocents in this.
>
> Prabir Purkayastha: So what you're saying is that it is possible in
> the long run that you get a kind of client state developing in Libya.
>
> Aijaz Ahmad: Long-term, a division is quite possible and for now a
> stable division, in which the east is stabilized as a Western
> protectorate. Pretty much as Kurdistan was in Iraq. Except that much
> of the oil is there and that's what the American and Western interest
> primarily is. Now the main Western oil interest in Libya as of now is
> Italian. Not American. So how will that play out? I don't know.
>
> Prabir Purkayastha: In fact most of the Italian refineries use Libyan
> oil and they are not geared to take other oil. Berluscone was also a
> great friend of Gaddafi's and shared certain common interests with
> him.
>
> Aijaz Ahmad: Yeah, but a pack of thieves don't have to stand together
> all the time.
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> This video was released by NewsClick on 11 March 2011, before UN
> Security Council Resolution 1973 (2011) -- authorizing "Member States,
> acting nationally or through regional organizations or arrangements,
> to take all necessary measures to protect civilians under threat of
> attack in the country, including Benghazi" -- was imposed on 17 March
> 2011. The text above is an edited partial transcript of the
> interview.
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>