[A-List] Peak Oil is History

[Bill Totten]

by Dmitry Orlov

Club Orlov (September 02 2010)


... now does seem to be an auspicious moment to hold forth with a
new piece of Peak Oil theory, because this is the year when, for
the first time, just about everyone is ready to admit that Peak Oil
is real, in essence, though some are not quite ready to call it by
that name.

... Now that the matter has been largely settled, I feel that the
time is ripe for me to weigh in on the subject and declare,
unequivocally, that Peak Oil is indeed bunk. Not the part about
global oil production reaching a peak sometime right around now
then declining inexorably: that part seems true enough. Nor the
part about oil production in any given province becoming
constrained by geology and technology once the peak is reached:
that part, under properly designed experimental conditions, seems
predictive as well. In fact, the depletion model has been confirmed
beautifully by the example of the continental United States minus
Alaska since 1970. But the idea that this same depletion model can
be applied to the planet as a whole, is, I feel, something that
must be rejected as utterly and completely bogus.

... Peak Oil theory has been quite good at predicting the depletion
profile of certain stable and prosperous countries and provinces.
But these predictions become meaningless when extrapolated to the
world as a whole, for one very obvious reason: the world cannot
import oil. Let me say it again, this time in title-case, bolded
and centered, to emphasize the significance of this statement:

    Planet Earth Can't Import Oil


When faced with insufficient domestic oil production, an
industrialized country has but two choices:

1. Import oil

2. Collapse

But when faced with insufficient global oil production, an
industrialized planet has just one choice:

2. Collapse

Read entire article at
http://www.culturechange.org/cms/content/view/674/66/

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2010/09/peak-oil-is-history.html


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