[A-List] Our Village

[Todd Boyle]

I wold like to point out one of the central fallacies of Dmitry 
Orlov's writing:
it has a distorted scale of time.  His diagram of oil, apparently, starts at
the present consumption rate and drops like a rock, over a handful
of years.   That is NOT what's going to happen.  There is a longer
tail, and during that tail, oil gets more expensive, it is distributed quite
unfairly to the rich, and coal and natural gas accelerate, and renewables
accelerate, and we don't die.   Not from lack of oil.  Perhaps global warming.
But again-- the crisis of global warming is decades away, and the
real dieoff of the industrialized countries, and extinction threat,
is a century away.  It is not "NOW".

Please read carefully his paragraph below--- I repeat, the definitino of
"NOW" can be found in any dictionary.  Orlov was wrong in 2005 in his
use of the word "now", and he remains, five years later, a poor judge
of how things will unfold.

Todd

Dmitry Orlov apparently wrote,

>The United States is now facing a predicament similar to the one the
>Soviet Union confronted some two decades ago. There is a great deal of
>discussion, among those few who try to think for themselves, about the
>right way to respond to the permanent energy crisis that has already
>started to grip the country. The entire American way of life is an
>artificial life support system that runs on fossil fuels, and it is
>going to get knocked out as these fuels run low. Of the few people who
>have any notion that this is happening, even fewer can imagine what
>might come next, beyond the gut feeling that it will be unpleasant.
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