[A-List] Scenarios For Last Ditch US Attempt To Control Ex-USSR, World

[Tony B.]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: Rick Rozoff
To: stopnato at yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, September 05, 2008 2:57 PM
Subject: [stopnato] Scenarios For Last Ditch US Attempt To Control Ex-USSR, 
World


http://en.fondsk.ru/article.php?id=1592

Strategic Culture Foundation
September 4, 2008

Georgia: the First Step Towards Chaos Control (II)
Part I

-[P]reparations for the second phase of the US
operation aimed at destabilizing the post-Soviet space
are underway. Its start is tentatively scheduled for
September-October, 2008 and will probably be marked by
a new Georgian invasion of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,
this time with direct US support by means of space
reconnaissance and radio-frequency jamming. Quite
possibly, US Special Forces in Georgian army uniforms
will be involved in combat.
-[T]he US intends to use Georgia as a foothold in a
campaign aimed at dragging Russia into a low-intensity
conflict as it has been done in Vietnam. The response
of the Ukrainian leadership has shown that it is ready
to join Georgia in a military confrontation with
Russia in case Washington asks it to.
-In parallel, the US will be bracing for an attack on
Iran. The result will be McCain's victory in the
coming presidential race.
-The fact that the US elite aims at instigating a
series of regional conflicts shows that the US is no
longer able to carry the burden of global leadership,
and the coming war is the last resort to retain
it....The reliance on war demonstrates that the US
elite's intellectual potential needed to maintain the
status of the US as the only superpower is exhausted.

Russia is the key power in the post-Soviet
geopolitical space. It is actively reasserting itself,
and the process will compel other post-Soviet
countries to decide which side to take. As a result
the currently amorphous club known as the CIS will
split into real military, political, and economic
alliances.

The core of the new alliance in the post-Soviet space
led by Russia will be formed in the framework of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization with the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a geopolitical,
military, and strategic partner.

The new alliance will not be joined by Georgia,
Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. [GUAM]

A question mark hangs over the future partnership with
Belarus.

Nevertheless, considering that all of the above
countries except for Azerbaijan are not
self-sufficient in terms of energy resources and are
too weak economically to survive the transition to
market-based fuel prices, they will have to look for a
justification for their siding with the US and the EU
in the situation of domestic economic crises.

The initial polarization in the post-Soviet space will
be a prologue to a serious geopolitical conflict
between the two groups of countries. At times we will
see the confrontation evolve into armed hostilities.

There are two long-term scenarios for the evolution of
the situation.

According to the first scenario, the occasionally hot
conflict between the two new blocs in the post-Soviet
space will be sufficiently protracted to make the
existence of the Russian geopolitical space in the de
facto imperial form impossible.

The second scenario is that Russia and its allies will
make serious efforts to gain control over the
territories of the above countries. In our view, the
latter option is the only one acceptable to Russia
since it simply cannot afford a protracted conflict.

The CIS split and permanent instability in its space
will have an extremely negative impact on European
energy security.

Europe

Currently Europe is divided over strategy and tactics
in dealing with the unfolding conflict between Russia
and the US.

On the one hand, old Europe is tired of being an
inferior partner of the US and no longer regards
Russia as an ideological opponent....

On the other hand, the East European novices will be
trying to profit from the discord between Russia and
the US as their economies have no potential to survive
the fuel price war the West is dragging Russia into.

It should be expected that Europe will fail to
formulate a common approach to Russia.

However, the US is notorious for its ability to stage
provocations. Therefore, it appears likely that in the
nearest future the US will organize another massive
provocation (similar to the events of September 11) or
a series of provocations of smaller proportions in
order to break the resistance of a part of the
European elite and to entirely subdue the EU.

In case the US succeeds in doing so, its conflict with
Russia will turn into a cold war in which Europe will
- contrary to its continental interests -
traditionally play the role of a satellite of the
"global island".

Asia

China and Iran will be important actors in the coming
transition.

It is clear that if Iran is admitted to the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization before it comes under attack
from the US and Israel, and China supports Russia in
its bid to restore order in the disintegrating
Russian...geopolitical space, Russia will avoid
fighting a cold war alone. However, it is too early to
say what stance Tehran and Beijing are going to adopt.

Geo-Economics

The threat of a series of local conflicts or of one
global military conflict is bound to affect the
overall condition of the world economy.

Access to natural resources will be of fundamental
importance to the stability of national economies.

Since Russia is the world's top resource-rich country
and it has successfully reformed its traditionally
most problem-ridden sector - the manufacturing of
consumer products - the Russian economy should be able
to endure high food and technology prices.

The economy of the majority of Western countries will
move from stagnation to long-term recession.

The position of the US will be the best among the
Western countries since it has large oil reserves and
has raised domestic natural gas production by 50% over
recent years. Therefore, in case Europe once again
allows US strategists to get it involved in a cold war
with Russia, its own economy will be particularly
vulnerable.

Conclusions

1. The conflict in the Caucasus has shown that Russia
should as actively as possible move on to implementing
its own strategic political projects in the
post-Soviet space.

The politics of limiting interactions with post-Soviet
countries to interacting with their leaders proved
inefficient, as we have seen in the cases of Georgia
and Ukraine.

Russia should address broader audiences including
various political elites and the general public in the
respective countries. Moscow's policy should not be
exclusively oriented towards any particular authority
groups in post-Soviet countries.

The approach would be equally warranted from the
economic standpoint. It will require substantial
financial infusions, but it is cheaper than a war.

Russia spent $100m a day on the war with Georgia and a
serious armed conflict is bound to be even costlier.
The budget of a program of cultivating friendly
political forces in any of the CIS countries is likely
to stay within the $1bn limit. Unless such efforts are
made, economic expansion alone will not ensure
Russia's influence over its neighbors.

2. In all likelihood, preparations for the second
phase of the US operation aimed at destabilizing the
post-Soviet space are underway. Its start is
tentatively scheduled for September-October, 2008 and
will probably be marked by a new Georgian invasion of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia, this time with direct US
support by means of space reconnaissance and
radio-frequency jamming. Quite possibly, US Special
Forces in Georgian army uniforms will be involved in
combat.

At the same time, a provocation such as the murder of
Russian sailors or a blow-up of a Russian warship will
be organized in Sevastopol, the result being a civil
war in Ukraine and a direct military conflict between
the country and Russia.

Obviously, the US intends to use Georgia as a foothold
in a campaign aimed at dragging Russia into a
low-intensity conflict as it has been done in Vietnam.
The response of the Ukrainian leadership has shown
that it is ready to join Georgia in a military
confrontation with Russia in case Washington asks it
to.

3. In parallel, the US will be bracing for an attack
on Iran. The result will be McCain's victory in the
coming presidential race. American society has given
him carte blanche to take drastic measures to deal
with the countries which do not side with the US.

Nevertheless, war with Iran will stretch thin the US
armed forces simultaneously engaged in several
conflicts. Though Iran's infrastructure will be
largely destroyed during the first days of the US
attack and, quite possibly, the US and Israel will
subject it to nuclear strikes, its strategy will be to
block the Strait of Hormuz and to switch the conflict
to a permanent mode.

4. The fact that the US elite aims at instigating a
series of regional conflicts shows that the US is no
longer able to carry the burden of global leadership,
and the coming war is the last resort to retain it.

However, the conflict will not last forever and sooner
or later the US will have to downscale its military
and political presence worldwide. The reliance on war
demonstrates that the US elite's intellectual
potential needed to maintain the status of the US as
the only superpower is exhausted.

5. Under the circumstances Russia's main task is to
psychologically survive the first propaganda strike
and some 3-6 months of the information war waged by
Western media. Subsequently the US will have to
withdraw under various pretexts from the conflicts it
unleashed unless its victory will be complete and
obvious.

6. The result will be a fundamental transformation of
the global geo-economic picture and pattern of trade
and financial flows, plus a reform of the UN. A new
global monetary system will be established based on
the economies of Russia, China, Japan, Germany, India,
and Brazil.

7. The US dollar will lose its current status of the
global currency. The US will no longer be a country
with attractive living conditions, and a migration of
quality workforce from the country will commence.

The US will be plagued by crime and will face the
problem of preserving its territorial integrity. The
international community will have to dispatch a
peacekeeping force to US territory to maintain order
in the country and to prevent international terrorists
from making inroads into its nuclear arsenals.

8. The EU in its current form will cease to exist. A
new system of European collective security will be
based on the alliance of Russia, Germany, and France
and on a partition of Europe into their respective
spheres of influence.

Great Britain will be distanced from the continent
again and lose its competitive advantages. London will
stop serving as the world's financial center.

9. Facing serious time constraints, Moscow should
clarify its relations with Belarus, and its Collective
Security Treaty Organization and Shanghai Cooperation
Organization partners maximally by the moment the
above scenario starts to materialize.

===========================
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