[A-List] Russia re global warming

[Michael Hudson]

Winners from global warming?
April 2, 2007
By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent

OSLO (Reuters) - Northern nations such as Russia
or Canada may be celebrating better harvests and
less icy winters in coming decades even as rising
seas, also caused by global warming, are washing away Pacific island states.

A draft U.N. report to be issued in Brussels on
April 6 foresees unequal impacts from warming:
tropical nations from Africa to the Pacific,
mostly poor, are likely to bear the brunt but
those nearer the poles, mostly rich, may briefly benefit.

"At least for a few decades there will be a few
winners," said Rajendra Pachauri, the head of
U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
of 2,500 experts which will release the report
outlining regional impacts of warming.

But he said most scenarios foresee an extended
rise in temperatures this century, stoked by
rising concentrations of greenhouse gases from
burning fossil fuels. "Clearly there would be no
winners left anywhere," he told Reuters.

Pachauri declined to give details of the report
but a draft seen by Reuters projects heatwaves,
droughts and floods that could cause more hunger
for millions of people, mainly in Asia and
Africa, and water shortages for up to 3.2 billion.

It also says, however, that world farms could
gain from up to a 3 Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) rise
in temperatures because of better crop growth at higher latitudes.

And less cold towards the poles could also mean
fewer deaths in winter, lower heating bills and
more tourism -- aiding nations from Scandinavia to New Zealand.

Even so, many reject the idea of climate change winners.

"You can have positive effects in some sectors
and very negative in others. It's impossible to
say what the bottom line will be," said Norwegian
Environment Minister Helen Bjoernoy.

SWEETER APPLES

She said rising temperatures might mean "sweeter
apples and cherries" in Scandinavia or less need
for snow ploughs in winter to clear the streets.
But stocks of cod or herring might move north, damaging fisheries.

And there are ethical issues too.

"With a temperature rise of perhaps 2-3 Celsius
(3.6-5.4 Fahrenheit) you would see benefits for
the whole temperate zone," said Richard Tol of
the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin.

"But if you approach it from an ethical
perspective -- that your emissions will affect
people in Bangladesh -- then clearly you have to think again," he said.

In Europe, he reckoned places north of about
Bordeaux in France could benefit. Portland,
Oregon, in the United States and Vladivostok in
Russia are roughly on the same latitude.

Among regional losers, the draft report says
Himalayan glaciers could shrink on current trends
to 100,000 square kilometres by 2030 from 500,000
square km now. Glaciers regulate river levels and
link to irrigation for hundreds of millions of people in Asia.

Low-lying small island states, such as Tuvalu in
the Pacific or the Maldives in the Indian Ocean,
fear they could disappear below the waves as seas
rise. Millions of people from China to Florida live in low-lying coastal
areas.

"Sea-level rise and increased sea water
temperature are projected to accelerate beach
erosion, and cause degradation of natural coastal
defences such as mangroves and coral reefs," the
draft says of small island states.

A U.N. report in February said seas could gain by
18 to 59 centimetres (7.1 to 23.2 inches) by 2100.

And the new draft says that many dry regions --
such as the Mediterranean basin, the Western
United States, southern Africa and northeastern
Brazil -- "will suffer a decrease of water resources due to climate change".

RUSSIAN FUR COATS

Russian President Vladimir Putin once mused in
2002, before deciding to ratify the U.N.'s Kyoto
Protocol for fighting global warming, that
warming might be good for his chill nation.

"You often hear, either as a joke or seriously,
that Russia is a northern country and it would
not be scary for it to be two or three degrees
warmer," Putin said. "Maybe it would be good and
we could spend less on fur coats and other warm things."

But other experts say rising temperatures could
thaw permafrost on which many roads and towns are
built -- from northern Canada to Siberia -- and bring forest pests north.

"And in many regions farming cannot simply move
north -- Russia and Canada simply lack suitable soils," Tol said.

Echoing Putin, a report last year by former World
Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern said there could be winners.

"In higher latitudes, such as Canada, Russia and
Scandinavia, climate change could bring net
benefits up to 2 or 3 degrees Centigrade through
higher agricultural yields, lower winter
mortality, lower heating requirements, and a potential boost to tourism.

"But these regions will also experience the most
rapid rates of warming with serious consequences
for biodiversity and local livelihoods," it added.

"It's a very dangerous avenue to say there are
benefits from climate change," said Anders
Portin, senior vice president of the Finnish
Forestry Industry Federation. He said that paper
producers would "certainly not" be net beneficiaries.

Pine forests might grow better but insects,
normally killed in winter, could thrive. Heavy
transport machines are already getting bogged
down on normally icy forest tracks as spring
arrived early, and storms in Scandinavia in
recent years toppled record amounts of timber.