[A-List] Elections in the Spanish State: First Impressions

[Ed George]

The outstanding features are: 

1. The enormous rise in the PSOE vote, in terms of numbers of votes cast
(the reference I shall be using throughout here) up from 7,918,752 in
2000 to 10,909,687, a rise a shade under three million. It is this,
fundamentally, which explains the change in government. The Partido
Popular vote fell, but not earth-shatteringly: from 10,321,178 in 2000
to 9,630,512. The turn-out was up significantly on 2000: by calculating
an abstention rate from a total of stay-at-homes plus 'votos en blanco'
(i.e. blank votes) plus 'votos nulos' (i.e. spoiled papers) we get an
abstention of 11,125,189 (33.54%) in 2000 and 8,297,135 (25.37%) in
2004. That difference, of 2,828,054, is principally where PSOE's extra
vote came from. So this is the central feature: three million people who
did not vote in 2000 voted PSOE in 2004.

Why? Principally, I would argue, because of what happened on Saturday.
Up until Thursday's attacks the opinion polls were consistently giving
the PP a healthy lead over PSOE (if you want to know why, check the note
I wrote for this list after the local elections of last may, at:
<http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/marxism/2003w21/msg00200.htm>
and succeeding two posts): my prediction up to this point, now purely
hypothetical, but for what it's worth, was that the PP would just regain
their absolute majority. Then, when the attacks of Thursday came, the PP
desperately tried to pin them on ETA, against an increasing mountain of
evidence that this was not possible. Even on Friday night, the mood on
the popular mobilisations was very Spanish, and-ETA and anti-Basque. It
was overnight on Friday that it began to dawn on large numbers of people
that the wool was being pulled over their eyes and that the claims by
the PP regarding ETA were not a simple mistake made in difficult
circumstances but a deliberate attempt to shore up their electoral base
through a campaign of conscious dishonesty. Saturday afternoon saw a
large number of demonstrations throughout Spain outside PP party
headquarters; since Saturday was supposed to be a 'day of reflection' (a
day free of political campaigning) Mariano Rajoy, the PP's candidate in
the elections, denounced the demonstrations as 'illegal' and
'undemocratic'. The say a week is a long time in politics; here, the
popular mood, especially amongst young people, was swung around in 24
hours.



2. Alongside this central feature, there are a number of conjuncturally
peripheral but long-term central features we need to take note of.

2.1 The realignment of Catalan politics. This election saw the left
nationalist Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya quadruple its vote:
effectively what has happened is that the rise in turn out evidenced
throughout the Spanish state was shared between the Catalan socialists
and ERC, continuing a trend witnessed in the Catalan elections of last
December, which gave rise to a coalition government of Socialists, ERC
and the Catalan version of the Communist Party's electoral front
Izquierda Unida (in Catalunya in tandem with the Greens). This is
especially noteworthy given that the leader of ERC, Josep Carod Rivera,
has received an enormous amount of public flak over a secret meeting
held with ETA in Perpignan in January (and was forced to resign his
position as Deputy First Minister in the Government).

2.2 The Basque Country. The Basque nationalist vote is significantly up
on the last Spanish state elections, by about 20% of total votes cast.
The PP vote, however, collapsed, from 323,235 to 232,577 votes. Here,
the dramatic rise in the Socialist vote can in good part be explained by
a re-alignment in the Spanish nationalist vote, between PP and PSOE. The
rise in turn out, again significant, went to Basque nationalism, not
Spanish nationalism.

2.3 the appalling performance of the Communist part's electoral front,
Izquierda Unida. Although it just maintained its vote, of around a
million and a quarter, the rise in turnout saw its representation cut
from 9 seats to 5. Since the party specifically set its target as
turning the anti-war protests of last year into votes in the ballot
boxes, this can only be regarded as a failure, and must surely provoke
debate as to its continuing existence.




What happens now? In all probability Zapatero will govern in a minority
administration on an issue by issue basis for as long as he can (rather
than forming a coalition administration). Outside PSEO headquarters in
Madrid last night the chant from the crowds was '¡No nos falles!' -
'Don't let us down!.' Expectations will be high. What can, and will if
it is not dealt with, break the government is the national question.
PSOE is as Spanish centralist as anyone, and the Spanish state question,
especially as it manifests itself in the Basque Country, will not go
away.