[A-List] Zimbabwe: Mugabe support crumbling?

[Michael Keaney]

Knives out for Mugabe as party loyalty fades

Power struggle brews within Zanu-PF amid growing dismay over Zimbabwe's
collapse

Andrew Meldrum in Harare
Friday May 2, 2003
The Guardian

Zimbabwe's president, Robert Mugabe, is battling against a whispering
campaign within his Zanu-PF party begun by some of his deputies and
lieutenants vying to succeed him.

The Guardian revealed yesterday that Mr Mugabe faced unprecedented pressure
from fellow African leaders to retire, and the presidents of South Africa
and Nigeria, Thabo Mbeki and Olusegun Obasanjo, were due in Harare on Monday
to urge him to end his 23-year rule.

But even as the 79-year-old leader struggles with Zimbabwe's severe famine,
fuel and power shortages, economic collapse and international criticism, he
is also confronted by growing pressure from ambitious officials in his own
party.

Interviews with senior members of Zanu-PF show that substantial elements of
the party think it is time for Mr Mugabe to go. But it is bitterly divided
over who should succeed him and remains at a loss for a strategy for pulling
the country out of its most severe economic freefall and famine ever.

"The party is fully aware they have lost the population," a former Zanu-PF
member of parliament said. "Cabinet ministers and party officials sit over
beers and admit the party has failed the country. But when Mugabe comes into
the room they all sit up and tell the president what he wants to hear. They
are all afraid."

They fear that Mr Mugabe will cut them out of the party's inner circle of
wealth and power. They are also afraid of Mr Mugabe's revenge. Some cabinet
ministers privately say they are unhappy with the situation but are
frightened of violent retribution if they resign.

"Zanu-PF is not just a political party, it is a liberation movement that
fought a bitter and bloody war to gain power," said Wilfred Mhanda, a
prominent war veteran, now director of the Zimbabwe Liberators Platform, a
group critical of Mr Mugabe. "That violent struggle 30 years ago shaped
Robert Mugabe and many others in the party. They are committed to keeping
power, not to democracy. They are not afraid to spill blood now to keep
power."

Mr Mugabe's use of the army, police, war veterans and youth militia
frightens many people, but he cannot intimidate an economy back to
prosperity or win back popularity.

"There are several in Zanu-PF who have been waiting for years to succeed
Mugabe and now they fear they are losing their chance," said a former
ambassador. "They fear Mugabe will drag the party down with him and they
won't have a chance of power. That is why they want Mugabe to step down
now."

The most prominent faction became public in January when the opposition
leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, revealed that he had been approached by the
parliamentary speaker, Emmerson Mnangagwa, and the chief of staff of the
armed forces, General Vitalis Zvinavashe, who asked him if he would join a
"transitional government" if they got Mr Mugabe to retire.

Mr Mnangagwa, a former defence minister, is widely considered to be Mr
Mugabe's likely successor.

"They are powerful men, but their weakness is that they are not popular,"
said a Zanu-PF MP. "Mnangagwa cannot even win an election within the party,
not to mention a parliamentary seat. How could he lead the nation?"

Party leaders can rattle off other factions vying to succeed Mr Mugabe, but
virtually all of the various challengers are devoid of any new economic
policies to reverse Zimbabwe's decline.

The one Zanu-PF contender who is an exception is Simba Makoni, a former
finance minister. He has spoken out for rational economic policies and
avoided associating with the more lawless side of the party.

He told the Guardian that Zimbabwe's daunting problems demanded a national
effort in which all Zimbabwean parties and civic organisations worked
together.

"We are faced with a crisis, both economic and social, that calls for a
national effort that cuts across party lines," Mr Makoni said.

"The governing party and the opposition party must work together, with civil
society and professional bodies. Only that way can we mobilise all our
resources to find a way out of this crisis. We need to get Zimbabweans to
work together again."

Mr Makoni's statements are earth-shaking, particularly coming from within Mr
Mugabe's often belligerent ruling party.

"It is a hallmark of democracy that the different political parties can work
together. Anyone who suggests that our problems can be solved by an
exclusively partisan approach from any one party is suggesting a path that
will be longer and more painful," said Mr Makoni. "And to work with our
regional and international partners would also be beneficial."

A Zanu-PF member of parliament said: "Moderates within Zanu-PF are
comfortable with Makoni and even the general public likes him. He is not
tainted by corruption. But he does not have a proven constituency, he does
not have an elected seat."

Another party member said: "Makoni is outside the inner circle but he could
well come to power with a bit of support from South Africa."

South Africa's economic pressure and President Mbeki are the most decisive
factors influencing Mr Mugabe.

"South Africa's key strategy in dealing with Zimbabwe is to try to get
Zanu-PF to make an internal change in leadership. If they finish up the land
redistribution, that could allow Mugabe to retire as a hero and get a
successor," said Ivor Jenkins, director of the International Democratic
Alternative for South Africa.

He said Mr Makoni appeared to have "the least baggage in terms of
allegations of corruption and human rights abuses".

There is also growing speculation that Mr Mbeki is looking to Mr Makoni.