[A-List] Argentina: FT analysis

[Michael Keaney]

[Interesting that Rodriguez Sáa should come in for the most criticism here.
MK]


Argentina's voters fear more of the same
By Adam Thomson in Buenos Aires
Financial Times; Mar 26, 2003

Filomena Forlano thought she had seen everything.

>From her newspaper stand in the heart of Buenos Aires's financial district,
she watched the anger and despair as Argentina's financial system collapsed
just over a year ago.

Before that there was the hope of the 1990s, the confusion of hyperinflation
and the violence of military rule.

But with just over a month to go before Argentines elect a new president,
she says she has never witnessed such disenchantment with the country's
politicians.

"People feel there are no new options. The candidates have all held
positions of power before and they have shown that they only govern for
themselves, not for the people."

In previous elections, the country's political system ensured that a
candidate from one of the two traditional parties - the Peronists and the
Radicals - emerged with a clear majority and went on to take office.

Today, that two-party system has all but collapsed. Infighting among the
Peronists has been so intense that for the first time in its history the
party has proved incapable of agreeing on a single candidate.

Instead, three Peronists have put their names forward: Carlos Menem, the
former president; Néstor Kirchner, governor of Santa Cruz province and a
favourite of Eduardo Duhalde, the current president; and Adolfo Rodr'guez
Sáa, a populist with a permanent smile who was president for eight days at
the end of 2001.

The Radicals are even more fragmented. Two of them - Elisa "la gorda" (the
fat one) Carrió, a congresswoman and centre-left candidate running on an
anti-corruption platform, and Ricardo López Murphy, a centre-right candidate
and former minister of economy - have decided to run as independent
candidates. Leopoldo Moreau, the official Radical candidate, barely
registers in the lastest opinion polls.

The repeated policy failures of the past 20 years and widespread perceptions
of corruption have erased the last vestiges of trust that Argentines had in
their politicians.

Some analysts suggest that as Argentina becomes poorer, its political system
is beginning to resemble that of smaller and less-developed Latin American
countries such as Bolivia or Ecuador.

"If you take the four most recent elections in Latin America - Brazil,
Colombia, Ecuador and Bolivia - Argentina today looks much more like Ecuador
and Bolivia, both of which had a highly fragmented vote, than the first
two," says Rosendo Fraga, a Buenos Aires-based political analyst. As a
result, Mr Fraga thinks these are the most uncertain elections in more than
a century.

Opinion polls support his view: none of the five candidates with any chance
of winning on April 27 - or at least of going through to a second round
run-off on May 18 - has a clear lead.

This fragmentation is a serious concern. For a start, talks on burning
issues such as getting the banking sector back on its feet to are being put
off until after the elections. Heads of private banks say that with such a
lack of political definition there is little point in talking now.

Their attitude is reinforced by the uncertainty generated by some of the
candidates' more exotic proposals. Mr Rodgríguez Sáa, for example, plans to
scrap all existing legislation, reviewing each of the country's 26,000 laws
and about 40,000 decrees on a case-by-case basis in the first six months in
office.

More generally, Argentina's political fragmentation begs questions about
whether the next president will be able to control Congress.

"I don't know if reaching quorum [in Congress] is going to be possible,"
says Roberto Bacman, executive director of Centre of Studies for Public
Opinion, a political consultancy in Buenos Aires. "Everything is divided."

Adding to the uncertainty, at least 17 of the country's 24 provinces,
including the capital itself, have announced elections for governor between
May and December. The governors wield considerable influence in national
politics and until the elections it will be difficult - if not impossible -
to obtain support for vital reforms.

Many think that if a Peronist wins the elections, most of the party will
pull together again. "Peronism is about power. If one of them wins, it is
likely the others will fall into line in the expectation of sharing the
spoils," says Felipe Noguera, a Buenos-Aires based political consultant.

Perhaps, but time is short. An interim accord with the International
Monetary Fund expires in August. Negotiating a new, more durable, one will
depend on a strong government able to mobilise sufficient support in
Congress. For now, that prospect is about as clear as the future of the
political parties themselves.