[A-List] US imperialism: Iraq & Saudi Arabia

[Keaney Michael]

Cornered Saddam could go for Armageddon, US fears
IAN BRUCE
The Herald, 19 June 2002

SADDAM Hussein would be likely to unleash his arsenal of chemical and biological weapons against US regional bases and Israeli cities if America begins a build-up for the invasion of Iraq, Pentagon planners say.

If the Iraqi dictator thinks a campaign to oust or kill him is under way, he will have no incentive to play by the rules and might choose to take as many of his enemies with him as possible using weapons of mass destruction.

The US military is drawing up options to depose Saddam and replace his regime, an aim restated last week by George W Bush, and reinforced by Donald Rumsfeld, his defence secretary.

The Pentagon top brass sees a devastating surprise first strike with precision bombs and missiles as the prerequisite for success, but still urge caution over the uncertainty of eliminating all of Saddam's strategic hardware at a single stroke.

The US estimates that Saddam has 157 air-dropped bombs and 25 Scud missile warheads capable of delivering germs or lethal VX or sarin nerve gas on ports and airfields in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the jumping-off points for a ground invasion.

John Warden, a former US air force colonel who helped plan the 1991 Gulf war air campaign, said more attention would have to be paid to harnessing internal opposition in Iraqi army units.

"One mistake we made the last time round was seeing the war as a war against Iraq, as opposed to a war against Saddam. We made an enemy of the Iraqi military when it might have been possible to persuade disaffected units to march on Baghdad," he added.

"We attacked their formations from the word go, making it impossible for them to do anything, far less stage an internal revolt. Next time we have to play on the discontent we know exists among the officer corps.

"Allied with well-planned air strikes targeting Saddam's command and control centres and personal bunkers, his Republican Guard divisions, and his internal security apparatus, there is a good prospect of success."

Another Pentagon source said: "The main concern is that Iraq has reasoned out that by sitting still for six months while the allied coalition built up its fighting power in Saudi Arabia before launching Desert Storm in '91, it sowed the seeds of its inevitable battlefield defeat.

"Saddam might well be tempted to try to wipe out that combat power as soon as it starts to arrive in theatre late this year or early next. One countermeasure might be to boost strength in phases and spread it around more widely. There are basing options in Turkey, Oman, and other regional countries to spread the load."

Elsewhere in the war against terrorism, Saudi Arabia has detained 11 Saudis, a Sudanese, and an Iraqi linked to al Qaeda who were allegedly planning terror attacks in the kingdom.

Among them was a Sudanese man suspected of being an al Qaeda cell leader who claimed to have fired a missile at a US warplane at a Saudi air base.

It was the first time Saudi Arabia had announced arrests of anyone linked to al Qaeda. All but four of the 19 September 11 suicide hijackers were Saudis.

The British and Australian embassies, meanwhile, repeated calls for vigilance after it emerged that an Australian working for British Aerospace in Saudi Arabia escaped unhurt on June 5 after being fired on five times by a sniper near a BAE compound in Tabuk.