[A-List] fwd from Anne Williamson
Mark Jones
mark.jones at tiscali.co.uk
Sun Oct 21 01:40:07 MDT 2001
To: "Mark Jones" <mark.jones at tiscali.co.uk>
Subject: Red Meat
Here's fodder for the list from a red meat "capitalist." I am interested
that few
have noticed the criminal, thoroughly fascist mischief afoot in Congress,
or have yet to
comment, at least . Of course I am out-of-step with all hereone as my view
is that capitalism has
not existed in the US or the developed world since Pres. McKinley. Yes, you
read that right - McKinley! What has been being built since the US set off to
"Christianize" the Phillipines is most definitely NOT capitalism, but
fascism.
Now we are suffering from a global fascism's attempt to
institutionalize....well,
100% will disagree with me, but a close reading of this very typical, poorly-
organized, always breathless knock-out report will give each of you some food
for thought if not new soil to plough. All best, -A.
PS BTW, Chapman has close ties to the intelligence community, and decades ago
broke with the CIA to become the still-standing maverick whose thoughts you
read below. In my own experience with his reports, I can say he has called
some magnificent scoops months before they were on anyone's radar screen.
PPS I would suggest none of you are giving enough thought to the import of Bob
Rubin's two closed-door appearances before Congress post-Sept 11. And no
Mr. O'Neil in sight! Why do you think that happened?
10/20 Bob Chapman - THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER 20, October , 2001 (#2)
THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER 20, October , 2001 (#2)
An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.
Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman Vol. 5- No. 10-2
Phone & Fax: 941 639 4756
E-mail: bif4653 at home.com
UP-COMING CONFERENCES
CHICAGO NATURAL RESOURCE/TECHNOLOGY CONFERENCE - November 17, 2001
Rolling Meadows Holiday Inn. Speakers: Joseph Granville, Editor "Granville
Market Letter";
Bob Chapman, Editor, "The International Forecaster"; Clyde Harrison,
Manager, Jim Rogers Index Fund;
David Tice, Portfolio Manager, Prudent Bear Fund; David Coffin, Editor,
Hard Rock Analyst.
Reservations required call Barbara Allen at 1-800-285-1700 or email
ballen at danoyes.com
or rradez at danoyes.com - the Conference is FREE.
SAN FRANCISCO: The New Opportunities Conference in San Francisco on
November 25th and 26th, 2001 at the San Francisco Marriott is the largest
and most well attended natural resource investment conference of its kind
in the world today. Admission is complimentary to all Fund-Managers,
Industry Analysts, Brokers, and Individual Investors and attendance is at
an all time high already this year. Top Line-up of more than 75 speakers
including Economists, Analysts, Newsletter Editors and more with Mr. Bob
Chapman and the International Forecaster. Check the website at
www.iiconf.com <http://www.iiconf.com>. Call for reservations at
1-800-282-7469. Mr. Chapman will be speaking and have a workshop on Sunday,
Nov. 25th.
Please note: We only print excerpts from the IF which publishes over 50
pages of commentary weekly. If youd like a free introductory copy please
access: bif4653 at home.com
US MARKETS
Americans are finally catching on. There is something seriously wrong with
the economy. As we said before they are frozen in the headlights never
having had a bad day in their life. Uncertainty has paralyzed the country
and rightly so. If the public realized how really serious the situation is
they would probably go into shock. Over the next few years theyll realize
they were victims of a failed experiment in monetary debauchery, brought
down upon them deliberately. The coming recession/depression will be a
clarion wake-up call, a bitter example of our elitist leadership. The media
is telling you this economic discomfort will last for six months. Dont
believe them. It will last for years. Unemployment will go over 7% next
year, and could easily return to the 10.8% we experienced in 1982 in 2003.
This Christmas sales will drop to levels not seen since 1953 and what will
be sold, will be sold at 25-80% discounts. Get ready to be laid off and go
through thousands of résumés before getting a nibble for a job at a salary
much lower than your last one. Tax rebates, lower interest rates and
government spending will not solve the problem. The excesses still have to
be purged from the economy, namely in real estate, debt and in derivatives.
The FED funds rate is already 2.5%, the lowest since 1962 and it has
produced zero results. Doesnt this give you a message? CDs pay 4 1/4% and
money market funds pay 2 3/4%. These low rates are hurting the retired and
others are afraid to take advantage of them for fear of being jobless and
not being able to make payments on a purchase. Fear induces caution. Fear
and caution should have been on peoples minds 18 months ago when we began
to write about the end of a false bull market, the inevitability of an
untoward event, such as a terrorist act or a contrived war probably in the
Middle East. We have been shouting get out of debt, be in cash, buy gold,
silver, platinum coins and stocks and we still are doing so. This is just
the beginning of a miserable period of adjustment.
It is certainly not too late to act. You can still square away your life in
the next year, so you can come out of this debacle with something left of
your assets. Those in hard assets could make fortunes. That, of course, is
dependent on how bad things get. Youll always be able to spend gold and
silver coins. After an initial drop in retail sales of 40% after the
tragedy, sales are still off 10%. We expect travel to remain off some 30%
and deteriorate further as time goes on. Dont believe our banking system
is healthy, it isnt. Excess funds you dont want to commit to mining
shares should be in Treasury paper. If you use a fund make sure they do not
use derivatives. Have cash on hand in all denominations and above all be
well armed and lay extra food away. Have a source of good water. These are
the facts. This situation didnt develop in the last two years; its the
result of 50 years of fiscal and monetary mismanagement. The financial
system is systemically shot and an alternate has to be found. The only
alternative is a gold exchange standard and it will come. Your first
question is, how did this happen and who is responsible? The answer is the
bankers, Wall Street, other elitist businessmen and the media. $200 billion
in business loans are about to go into default and the consumer debt
situation is even worse. Within a year and one half Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac will be taken over by the government in insolvency. That means you get
to pay for all those no-down loans that should have never been made in the
first place. The country has stalled. It is in a freeze, and until the
excesses are purged things will only get worse. Please protect yourselves.
We are only the messengers.
All the "experts" and the media now tell us there should be a permanent tax
break for business investment, although it is believed, even by them, that
the effect would be modest. Why would business invest with demand falling,
inventories still high and capacity utilization stuck in the mud? The
reserves for social security, pensions, Medicare and Medicaid have been
looted. Now we are told tax cuts for the very productive middle and
upper-class should be rolled back and that we should give money to lower
income families who will spend it immediately to indulge themselves and
have more stupid children. Budget increases will be far higher then we are
being told. Next its bread and circuses.
Now that the airlines have been subsidized with our hard earned money next
are the insurance companies. The canard is we have to help them to avert an
economic meltdown at the end of the year when many insurance contracts
covering business, office buildings and factories expire. Without such
coverage, lenders will not finance real estate purchases, construction or
investments by business in plants and equipment. Well so what. All they
have to do is self insure by setting up their own reserve fund from profits
or pay a larger payment along with principal and interest. Insurance is a
racket. They are nothing but high priced bookmakers using actuaries to set
their odds. Insurance companies by and large are loaded with money. The
need a bail out like we need a hole in the head. The lobbyists who have
paid off politicians for years are putting the big bite on these
white-collar crooks in congress not only from the insurance industry, but
also from real estate, travel and can you believe the investment industry,
which did more than any group except the FED to bury the economy. These are
not economic issues these are bailouts, just like the S&L fiasco. We
predicted $500 billion in losses in the early 1980s. Everyone thought we
were crazy. We were right. Officials in government are even exploring other
plans including creation of a new government-backed enterprise like Freddie
and Fannie to bankroll losses from terrorism. The taxpayer is simply
getting screwed again.
Cries of anguish are being heard from every illegal alien in America. The
White House and Congress have been forced to move rapidly toward making the
immigration laws even tighter. These dolts in congress now realize the
greatest threats to the country are coming from legal and illegal aliens.
Thus, the illegals are lying low. We are sure many are appreciative of
being in America and some we are sure have contributed time and money to
the victims of terrorism. We have had a different breed of legal and
illegal aliens over the past 40 years. Firstly immigrants from Canada and
Europe have been systematically forbidden or discouraged from coming to
America. Secondly, our recent arrivals still think of themselves as being
from another country and they are of that country, not America. This place
just happens to be where they are allowed to make a living. We even have
dual citizenship for Mexicans. They live in Los Angeles and vote and run
for office in Tijuana. Give us a break. What kind of allegiance is that?
What is really galling to us, as rabid soccer fans, is that in the recent
soccer match against Honduras at RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C., the
hometown crowd not only cheered for the visitors and booed the Americans,
but the attendees were throwing balloons of human feces and urine at the
crowd and the US players. Are we strangers in our own land? Star defender
Jeff Agoos said, "to walk on to your own stadium in the capital of our
country and see the crowd supporting the other team
its not devastating,
but it was disappointing for us. These games are so big; you need every
advantage you can get. We would like to see as many Americans out there as
possible. It does lift you up." There you have it fellow Americans straight
from an American. Foreigners of recent vintage both legal and illegal have
to be Americans or we dont need them here. That is why all legals that
entered over the last 6 years should have a special ID card and have to
report to the INS when they have any movement out of the state. Illegals
should be all sent back from whence they came and apply legally.
Fiscally, monetarily and economically we passed the point of no return
almost two years ago. Next the problem of excessive and massive debt has to
be addressed, which is normal at this stage of collapse. Due to ignorance
of economic matters, both by those who were college trained in business and
the general public, Americans dont understand what is happening to them.
Even those educated in economics have only been exposed to Keynesian
claptrap and never even heard of the Austrian School of Economics, so how
can they discern truth from fiction. When monetary aggregates expand so
does debt. They cause malinvestment and overly conspicuous consumption.
This is accompanied by higher unemployment and lower wages, which
exacerbates the ability to service debt, as demand plummets. The wealth
effect and the new economy are gone and Goldilocks is nowhere to be seen,
nor do CNBC, government and Wall Street ever mention such devastating
embarrassments. The public is finally getting it, the markets are rigged.
That is all the markets. The public has lost confidence and that is why the
economy and markets are going down and why we have a new war right on schedule.
We are told in the news NATO is patrolling our skys. We didnt know NATO
had an air force. We thought it was a group that acted jointly but severally.
We guess it wasnt P. T. Barnum who said, "Buy them and hold them," it was
Wall Street and CNBC. They also discovered theres a sucker born every
minute. By following such advice the American public has only lost $7
trillion. Then again, whats a trillion here and a trillion there? We would
expect after 17 years of a bull market that we wouldnt see the beginnings
of another bull market until June of 2004 or the fall of 2008. Even if we
hit a bottom in 2002 or 2003 another base has to be formed and that could
take years. This will be a long drawn out affair. The myth, propagated by
our government, Wall Street and CNBC that there will be a quick turnaround
after the correction is complete disinformation so as to not cause panic
among investors. It took those who held on in 1929 twenty-six years to get
even. That is what the propaganda machine fails to tell the investor. We
believe this correction will be as bad if not worse than 1929. If you think
it cant happen today just take a look at Japan. The Nikkei Dow was 40,000
in 1989. It recently traded at 9,500. We recommended our latest short at
21,000. That is a 12-year bear market and its not over yet. We find it
impossible to believe that the consumer is now going to save the economy.
His and her confidence has been shaken by terrorist attacks, they are
questioning the competence of government and big business and consumer debt
is 75% of GDP and 87% of income. There is absolutely no chance now that the
consumer can come to the rescue. You are experiencing the greatest
financial insanity of any nation in history. 1929-33 will soon be relegated
to second place in the history books.
In the last few weeks of September online sales of inflation-indexed bonds,
so-called Series I Bonds, which we recommended, jumped $30 million a week,
double the usual level. Theyll earn 5.92% for at least six months, nearly
1.5% above the national average of 4.47% paid on five-year certificates of
deposit. I Bonds can be cashed out in five years without paying a penalty
and accrue interest for 30 years. You can access the cash early by paying a
three-month interest penalty, much like a CD. These bonds are indexed to
provide a hedge against inflation and offer a guaranteed annual rate,
currently 3%, which remains for the life of the bond. A second rate,
currently 2.88%, is pegged to the rate of inflation, as measured by the
CPI. The two rates combined generate the current 5.92% annualized yield.
They are issued in certificate form and purchases are limited to as much as
$30,000.00 face amount a year for each Social Security number. You can
avoid this by having them issued in names of family members. If you are
interested buy them before 11/1/01 to lock in the current yield for six
months. Even if only held for one year and you pay the penalty to cash them
in early youd still earn about 4.1%, which is much better than 3.32% that
one-year CDs now pay.
Just to show you how bamboozled investors are, Rydex Venture 100 Fund, up
100% in three months, has attracted very little new money. Most investors
think the market is near a bottom, which tells us you should short to your
hearts delight.
It is called a silent liquidity crisis. During 1997-82 public companies
with total assets of $17.2 billion filed for Chapter 11. In 2000, 176
companies went bankrupt with assets of $94 billion, surpassing 1990-91s
record. Through this September companies with assets of $163 billion have
filed and the figure is expected to be over $200 billion for 2001. The
problem as much as anything else is cash flow. Defaults on junk bonds,
which we projected to be over 10% in spite of an early rally this year, are
a signpost for bankruptcy. We predict next year will be even worse.
California is quickly headed for the great dark economic pit. As we
predicted tax revenues are off sharply and the state could go $6.2 billion
in the hole if it doesnt get its $12.5 billion in bonds sold. The state is
about to cut its budget 10%. Tuition costs at state colleges will be
raised. Moodys is contemplating lowering the states credit rating, due to
an expected loss of revenue from the exercise of stock options and
capital-gains-related revenues. Twenty-five percent of tax revenue comes
from these sources. Tax revenue for the first fiscal quarter beginning July
1, was $747 million below estimates. Two-thirds of that slide was due to
less personal-income-tax revenue. We see it getting considerably worse.
Years ago, beginning in 1990, middle and upper-class flight began from the
state due to onerous taxation, crowding, deterioration in the quality of
life and massive waves of legal and illegal aliens, which in combination
has destroyed their tax base. In the coming recession/depression they will
suffer far more than any other large state. In September alone quarterly
tax payments were off 7.4%, or $142 million and estimated tax payments were
off 12.5% or $265 million for a monthly total of $307 million. The state
has a $7.1 billion cash balance, but has a shortfall of $6.2 billion. That
doesnt give the Peoples Republic much wiggle room.
In spite of the tragedy, NYC in the middle of a demand for space will have
a softening real estate market like other major cities. Without the WTC
incident prices on real estate and leasing would have been considerably
lower. The vacancy rate is 7% headed to 10%.
Consumer credit expanded $2.30 billion in August. That is a 1.7% annual
rate, after declining 0.4% in July. Auto, mobile home and vacation and
other loans were up 1.4% versus minus 2.2% in July. Credit card, retail and
bankcard borrowing rose at a 2.1% annual pace. Revolving credit rose 1.9%
in July.
It is called disinformation. We quote from the WSJ, "unbuilt cars, idle
airplanes, lost jobs all the work of suspected hijackers (ed. Not
terrorists), wielding box-cutters." They talk of a $100 billion economic
cutback, plus second half growth of 1% now to be minus 1%. What they dont
tell you is the truth and that is the economic downturn would have happened
anyway. The terrorist tragedy just expedited the process. Keeping in mind
there is no such thing as coincidence, the events caught the economy just
as it was going to seriously correct. Interest rates had already been
lowered several times and a $40 billion tax rebate was being showered on
taxpayers. Those actions do not leave one to believe the economy was
ascending. $4-$5 trillion had already been lost in the stock market and
unemployment had risen from 3.9% to 4.9%. All indications that we were in a
recession. Not to mention the viscous drop in corporate profits. Consumer
spending began falling in August. Its false and ingenuous to blame our
recession on two terrorist acts and it is disinformation, so typical of our
kept media.
As we only recently predicted high paying jobs are returning to America.
Now WPP Groups Young & Rubicam, Publics Groups Saatchi & Saatchi,
Interpublic Groups McCann-Erickson and other ad agencies are joining
forces and forming a coalition to bring commercial production back to the
US, and particularly NYC. Those commercials shot in Canada, New Zealand and
South Africa are coming home. We find this absolutely wonderful. New York
production has already picked up. Clients are going to have to bear much of
the increased cost, so well shortly find out how pro-American and
patriotic American business have become. At least it is a step in the right
direction and these ad agencies should be lauded for being the first to
take that patriotic step forward. Lets get all American business to come home.
Just to show you how out of whack the tech-dotcom madness, created by Wall
Street was, AOL-Time valued its German purchase from Bertelsman at $13.5 to
$16.5 billion. Analysts now put that value at $2-$5 billion. AOL-Time must
now pay $6.5 billion and they may not make the payment. When we put the
short on AOL at $52.00 a share we were well aware of this stupidity and
that it would involve the sale of more securities and the incumbent
dilution. Plus, AOL wanted to buy everything in sight in its quest to
become a secret propaganda arm of US intelligence services.
Genesis Intermedia, once a highflying stock with ties to Saudi crook Adnan
Khashoggi, is under investigation by the SEC for stock manipulation. Its
president Ramy el-Batrawi has resigned.
It is very boring each day to see the lineup of so-called "experts" from
brokerage houses, mutual funds and banks hustling the public. They still
dont get it; they cant give up the ghost. These professionals have still
lost sight of the risks inherent in the market. They have been and will
continue to find that all their new fangled models dont work. This market
is going down to 14 to 16 times earnings, where it was in 1995, and the
faster these whiz kids realize this the better off they will be. The
capitalization-weighted indices dont define risk; they increase it by
pointing the user to expensive stocks. In the final analysis we will return
to basic benchmarks and once there the next bull market will begin.
It is estimated that the art works lost in the WTC disaster were worth over
$100 million.
By signaling his support for lower taxes and higher public spending in the
next year, which will reach $130 billion, George Bush has identified
himself as a true Keynesian. This activist policy to be coordinated by the
G-7 has never been tried on this scale before and we suspect it will be
disastrous. A Keynesian Republican Party is now a Socialist Party, although
we never thought for a moment it was otherwise. The rope provided, we knew
theyd hang themselves. This makes George Bush, Alan Greenspan and Robert
Rubin three peas in a pod. Due to mega-increasing of aggregates and fiscal
stimulus, trillions of dollars of wealth will be confiscated through
inflation, except, of course, those in gold and silver related assets.
Europe is reluctant and will come along kicking and screaming. Japan has
already tried it and it doesnt work. They have been fiscally injecting
$250 billion a year into their economy. US public finances are not as
strong as they make them out to be and as tax revenues disappear government
and the FED will just print more money. It is just like borrowing short and
lending long, a guaranteed loser as our S&Ls found out. That was cheap; we
only lost $500 billion.
The amount of occupied office space shrank by an unprecedented 29.9 million
square feet between January and June due mostly to sub-leasing
availability. Much more is to come through bankruptcy, cut backs and
unemployment. The experts expect annual office vacancy to rise to 12% by
yearend that is assuming 50% of new leased space will be leased.
The SEC is proposing new emergency powers. Congress is considering
legislation that would give the SEC authority to impose broader and more
enduring emergency measures to stabilize markets during crises, which means
more manipulation.
In response to a request from Harvey L. Pitt, the chairman of the SEC, the
House Financial Services Committee approved a bill last week that would
allow the agency to extend emergency orders for up to 30 business days, and
in some cases for up to 90 calendar days. The SECs authority to issue
emergency orders is now limited to 10 business days.
The bill would also extend the scope of the SECs emergency powers to
include all federal securities laws.
In an effort to keep markets functioning, smoothly since the Sept. 11th
terrorist attacks, the SEC has taken a series of extraordinary actions,
including relaxing rules on corporate share repurchases, insider trading,
impeding shorting and the timing of reports filed with by exchanges on
order routing, trade execution quality and other matters. Mr. Pitt asked
Congress to consider extending its mandate.
Representative Michael G. Oxley, an Ohio Republican who is chairman of the
House committee, introduced the bill, which is under consideration by the
full House.
Reliable sources say both Russia and the US, in concert, have deployed
tactical nuclear weapons around Afghanistan. Russia has deployed them
around Chechnya. Russian bombers are said to be carrying neutron bombs. The
positioning of these weapons is a counter against a difficult turn of
events in Afghanistan or to counter terrorists in the US, Britain, France
or Israel, etc., from using weapons of mass destruction or chemical or
biological weapons. In another development Chinese Muslim troops, some
15,000 have been transported by the Chinese to aid the Taliban. It looks
like we could be looking at a Third World War. Besides the Taliban, bin
Laden is said to have over 100,000 well-trained Muslim zealots ready to
engage our forces.
An Intel institutional investor filed a lawsuit seeking class-action status
alleging the chipmaker made false statements last year about its third
quarter outlook, product development and product launcher. We have seen
this happen hundreds of times over the past 40 years and its about time
someone sued and put an end to it.
On 10/10/01 the Treasury sold $6 billion of four-week bills.
Apparel manufacturers employ three million workers in Pakistan and export
$1.83 billion in apparel to the US. The importers are Russell Corp.,
Kellwood, Warnaco, Sara Lee and Tommy Hilfinger. Duties are 20-30%, yet the
cost of slave labor allows such production.
Thus far most of the lawsuits against analysts have been dismissed as
abusive litigation. This is our court system at work. Wall Street lies and
gets away with it.
Next year the 38% federal income-tax bracket starts at $307,050, up from
$297,350, the 35% bracket begins on joint -filers at $171,950 and singles
at $141,250 and 30% starts at $112,850 for joint filers and $67,700 for
singles.
Early next year debt markets will be inundated with new state and local
government debt. Locking up long-term money at 5% is a very attractive
prospect for politicians. This means yields should rise during the first
four months of next year or the FED will have to increase aggregates massively.
The real estate appraisal business has become like the medical profession.
If you dont like what your doctor tells you, you go to a second or third
specialist. Appraisers for lender and borrower differ by 25 to 50 percent.
Ford has been caught at reverse discrimination. A white manager proved Ford
explicitly discourage consideration of white men for promotion to a top
echelon of management in favor of women and candidates of color. The
lawsuit is now seeking class action status. This has been going on for 30
years. Hopefully lawsuits like this one will bring discrimination against
white people to a halt. Promotions should only be on merit, not by social
engineering. Can you imagine what this experiment has cost America?
Now that airlines have been subsidized, among others, labor unions are
demanding special benefits for airline workers. We are writing this as we
fly on Southwest Airlines on a full flight that turned away standbys. The
AFL-CIO wants $1.9 billion for benefits, job training and health insurance.
The answer is discipline. Pentagon-run schools on military bases for
children of military personnel offer a model of education reform. The
schools score at or near the top in reading and writing nationally,
although their students are poorer and racially diverse. The reason why is
a strong sense of community and willingness of commanding officers to hold
parents accountable for their childrens behavior in school.
As far as we can discern all government figures are doctored and
manipulated. We stated in a previous issue that we believe unemployment and
inflation are both over 9%. That said we expect government unemployment
figures to reach 7% to 8.8% next year. We will refine those figures as we
go along. Unemployment will have to rise to 7.4% to bring household
expenditures into line with income and unemployment would have to rise to
9% to induce debt reduction and a return to historical savings levels. The
myth of productivity is history and higher inflation will manifest itself.
The FED and Treasury have already or are in the process of spending over
$200 billion. You should now expect an additional $400 billion in spending,
which will take the fiscal budget deficit to 6% of GDP. Cuts in business
taxes wont show up until the economy revives and then you dont need the
extra stimulus. Capital gains tax reductions will generally help only the
more affluent, thus they are not appropriate in this instance and set of
circumstances. As we have said personal income tax rebates will help, but
we dont want their issuance to be an excuse for cutting social security
benefits. Due to the fall in tax revenues we expect state and local
governments to curtail spending. They currently account for 10% of GDP. If
these municipal entities were to allow tax relief, services would be cut
along with employment and debt would grow, while relief to taxpayers would
increase. In all this approach is a loser, even if of a temporary nature.
The FEDs Japanese type policy on interest rates is having a logical result
and that is total failure. They have been instrumental is holding down bond
rates temporarily, but thats it. All of the above portend contraction in
the economy and guarantees a lower dollar versus major currencies. That
means a considerably lower stock market as capital takes to flight. This
means a massive liquidity problem as foreigners also sell bonds. That means
the current account balance will go into deep deficit and that the FED will
have to print more money then ever. When we said the problem was systemic
two years ago we meant just that. There is no way out. The result at best
will be depression and stagflation, at worst depression and inflation.
Unemployment eventually could be 14%-18%. It was 18% in the early 1930s.
The elitists will expand warfare, institute a draft, steal our liberties
under the guise of a more just and stable new world order. They know the
existing monetary system will fail because they set it up to fail in order
to usher in a global financial system. A new Bretton Woods type system is
needed based on a gold exchange standard and fixed but adjustable exchange
rates. A gold exchange standard means anyone at any time can demand gold
for his or her Federal Reserve notes. A gold standard is when only
governments can make that demand. Of course, that is not what the elitists
have in mind. They want to initiate a One-World currency doing away with
all other currencies and the use of gold within the worlds financial
system. As soon as the dollar has been depreciated in the amount they deem
necessary, the move to a One-World currency will begin. Those who disagree
for patriotic or nationalistic reasons will become the enemy of this global
order. They will be dealt with by eventually being incarcerated in
interment camps after having failed physiatrist examination. All those
outspokenly negative will be dealt with.
The strategy of borrowing short-term by business is flourishing. It saves
companies money and temporarily boasts earnings. Short-term rates have
fallen much quicker this year than long-term rates. Raising money through
short-term commercial paper sacrifices long-term financial flexibility.
Bank lending to business is still falling off some 8% over the past 13
weeks. Unless a company has a BBB rating banks wont lend to them. The
lending goal posts have been moved and eventually there will be little
liquidity for leveraged businesses. Now the commercial paper market is
drying up. Outstanding is now $75 billion, down from $145 billion last
year. That means rates will soon rise and there is a big gap between higher
and lower rated companies in rate costs. Top tier is paying 2.54% for
30-day commercial paper, while the second-tier issuers pay 15% more or
2.92%. That is down from a 5% spread a month ago.
The lower available cash flow is a major concern with growing debt-service
requirements. It presents substantial refinancing risk, which means
companies could get into serious financial trouble playing this game. It
also means soon rates are headed higher due to lack of liquidity.
Fannie Mac offered $2 billion in benchmark notes on 10/17/01 and 10/18/01.
Our preliminary estimate of the budget deficit for fiscal 2001-02 is $50
billion. All the reserves from Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and
Pensions has been looted again.
For the week ended 10/5/01 the Labor Department didnt like the
unemployment numbers so they again made "seasonal adjustments". They claim
claims fell 67,000 to 468,000. The week before that they were 535,000. We
are having massive layoffs and these idiots expect us to believe this
garbage. The number of people drawing unemployment-insurance benefits rose
98,000 to 3,479,000 in the week of September 9th.
The S&P 500 is again selling at 40 times earnings, which is a record high
thanks to the rally in the Dow to 9,400. The working group on Financial
Markets, better known as the Plunge Protection Team, has continued to
sharply move the market upward.
We had said that the market could rally 10-20% in a bear market. That has
occurred. A 20% move off the lows would be 9,793. The current move to 9,400
is about 15.1%. This could be the top. Two-thirds of high-income investors
are bullish as are 50% of the rest. Go short again if youve covered in our
short recommendations. If you are short add more shorts and consider buying
the Prudent Bear fund (call Rich Radez at 800-485-1700).
As we have pointed out for 10 years it is the oil and gas the elitists are
after in Afghanistan. The Central Asia Gas Pipeline must be completed from
Turkmenistans Dauletabad gas field to Pakistan and onto India. In the
meantime they convince Americans to accept a police state.
The trial balloons are going up to get public reaction to a common border
and security perimeter and synchronized immigration policy with both Canada
and Mexico, which would end US sovereignty over their own borders and hand
it over to a regional appointed commission of elitists. Paul Cellucci, US
ambassador to Canada and former CIA operative, has made just such
representations to Canada. The Cellucci elitist proposal would eliminate
the borders and amalgamate all three countries into one. All three would
lose their sovereignty and their particular identities.
Governor Grey Davis of the Peoples Republic of California, as we predicted
is seeking budget cuts of 15% as Moodys considers downgrading the states
credit rating as Californias revenues plunge. The state is headed for
social and financial chaos.
The secretive, privately owned US Federal Reserve, refuses to become a more
open institution and transparent, says Alan Greenspan. Presently minutes of
monetary-policy discussions are not available for five years. This
exacerbates financial market volatility and inefficiency and hedges its
manipulation of the gold and other markets. They are really accountable to
no one, because no one in Congress dares challenge them for fear of being
professionally destroyed or having an accident.
Harvard Law School, who else, is beating the drums for an international
tribunal comprising US and Islamic judiciary be set up to try terrorists.
This will turn the episode into a circus for murderers and legitimize an
illegal foreign court. Mr. bin Laden and all his accomplices should be
tried in the US. Although we believe they will be and should all be
liquidated. The leftist cry from Cambridge is legitimacy. America may be
the worlds policeman, but the terrorist murders were committed in NYC not
in Paris or Cairo. Theyd have trails at the International criminal Court
that has no legal standing and never will. Who cares what the Muslims and
the world public thinks, those were innocent Americans that were murdered,
because they were innocent Americans. They also proposed the UN Security
Council establish a court. Whatever way possible these elitist want to rob
us of what is left of our court system. All that garbage about puralism and
tolerance doesnt wash. We want American justice, not global justice, ever.
A federal judge approved a settlement agreement that will require NYC
officials to provide translated documents and interpreters to food stamp
recipients who speak little or no English. The citys Human Resources
administration will have to make available Spanish, Russian, Chinese and
Arabic copies of food stamp applications and other forms and notices
related to food stamps and welfare. They must provide bilingual workers and
eventually provide for those who speak 136 different languages. These rules
will eventually affect 500,00 to 1 million foreign NYC inhabitants. Our
immigration policies are something to behold. They arrive destitute, with
no education, and no money, and immediately are put on food stamps,
Medicaid and welfare and we get to pay for it.
US Bankcorp announced it was adding $1 billion to loan loss reserves.
Providian Financial, one of the hottest specialty financial companies,
operating in the sub-prime market is having big problems with its credit
card portfolio. The entire loan sector is coming under more pressure from
rising credit loses.
If we can reiterate again the underlying reason for the war in Afghanistan
is oil and gas. To this end world elitists support repeal of section 907 of
the Freedom Support Act. The Caspian region, as we wrote in 1990, contains
236 trillion cubic feet of gas and oil reserves of 60 to 200 billion
barrels of oil. In 2010 oil production is expected to be 4.5 million
barrels a day. The natural resources are landlocked and oil and gas have to
be shipped by pipeline out of the region to consuming markets. One pipeline
is being built by the Caspian Pipeline consortium to the Russian Black Sea
Port of Novorossiysk, which would ship by tanker through the Bosporus to
Mediterranean and world markets. The other project is the Azerbaijan
International Operating Company, consisting of Unocal, Amoco, Exxon and
Pennzoil. Their two chosen routes would be across the north Caucasus to
Novorossiysk or across Georgia to a terminal on the Black Sea and extended
west and south across Turkey to the Mediterranean part of Ceyhan. Both
together would not be able to handle future production nor would they
pinpoint the right markets. There are two possible solutions to moving oil
and gas east and southward from the Caspian Sea. The first could be cost
prohibitive, that is an 1875-mile pipeline into central China plus a
1250-mile connection to centers along the coast. The second and most
practical is a pipeline from central Asia to the Indian Ocean. The obvious
route is across Iran, but that cant be pursued due to US sanctions. The
only other possible route is across Afghanistan, whose problems are
presently manifested. This is why the US, UK and Russia are intent on
crushing the Taliban, who wouldnt allow access previously. The premier
idea is to gather oil from existing pipeline infrastructure in
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia. The 1,040 mile-long
pipelines would go through Afghanistan to an export terminal on the
Pakistan coast and would cost $2.5 billion. The aim is to link gas
resources to the nearest viable market. A proposed Eurasia gas pipeline
also would transport gas from Turkmenistan across the Caspian Sea through
Azerbaijan and Georgia to Turkey. Cent Gas with the above US players would
link Turkmenistans Dauletabad gas fields with Pakistan and possibly India.
These companies would make unbelievable amounts of money in the process.
That is why they want the Taliban extinguished and section 907 of the
Freedom Support Act rescinded. We can promise you Congress will rescind
because the price is right. Now you can see what this terrorism is all about.
The Manufacturing Index, which is declining again is a good proxy for
global economic performance, which is again deteriorating. Large increases
in government spending are on the way. We just moved from a $350 billion
surplus to a $50 billion deficit in one year, which again makes the
government a major borrower for the first time in five years. That will
crowd other borrowers out of the market sending real interest rates higher,
the dollar lower and gold higher. The Treasury could easily need to borrow
as much as $300 billion just in short-term paper.
The Senate sold our souls 100-0 in passing anti-terrorist legislation. They
can intercept mail, tap phone lines and email without warrant. They want to
take over all new airport security and create a whole new government
department of millions and tucked into the bill is Section 803, that makes
it a crime of terrorism to act in any way that is dangerous to human life
that violates the laws of the US or any state within the US and appears to
be intended to (1) intimidate or coerce a civilian population, (2)
influence the policy of intimidation or coercion or affect the conduct of a
government by mass destruction, assassination or kidnapping. This is an
open-ended law. It allows the federal government to pick up anyone at
anytime who disagrees with what the elitists dictate.
We envision almost all American military being out of the country in make
believe wars, disturbances and riots in major cities due to depression and
in order to keep order the Homeland (Fatherland) Security Secretary will
bring NATO or other troops into the US under the guise of keeping order.
Then the warrantless searches begin in order to disarm the populace, so
that they cant retaliate against dictatorial government. At that time
Americans will have to decide if they want to live on their knees or remain
free.
As mentioned before fast track trade authority didnt have a chance of
passing. Now George Bush and his elitist cabal are trying to ram it through
Congress. Needless to say it is unconstitutional but our purchased Congress
and Supreme Court could care less. They are not about to stop
globalization; they have been paid too well. They are about to deliver us
into totalitarian government under the continued subterfuge of national
emergency. The terrorist attacks, we repeat again, were inside jobs. If
they were not why were airline stocks shorted and puts purchased by
non-Muslims in major amounts, and why has the government not told the
public what we already know? Why were certain parties warned against
travel? The CIA and Mossad knew the attacks would take place.
What the American public has to understand is that this is a conspiracy.
Party labels of republican or democrat mean nothing. Most of those in big
business, academia and politics are controlled and are in this together. An
example is how both democrats and republicans fought fiercely to keep one
of theirs, Bill Clinton, from being impeached. These party labels mean
nothing. These people only answer to their own.
We also hasten to remind you that Mr. (Skull & Bones) Bush is demanding
America support a massive war over the next ten years that will involve the
drafting of 18-25 year old boys and girls who will again be led to
slaughter in far off lands to serve the interests of the New World Order in
order to return in body bags. We can just imagine the barbarity that will
be visited upon female American soldiers captured by these throwbacks to
the 12th century. We are being allowed to support a huge conflict whose
huge costs, in the midst of a depression, will bankrupt Americans, and cost
millions of American lives. And, never has this nation been more mentally
and physically unprepared to take on such a task. None under 45 years old
has really ever had a bad day in their lives, nor do they have the mental
toughness to survive. George W. Bushs first act after 9/11/01 was to fund
the creation of the biggest secret police apparatus in world history making
the KGB look like a band of errant stragglers. Our government has declared
war on us. You just dont know it yet. What they dont know is well win
the war and create a better world.
Texas and New York will probably have to borrow money or raise unemployment
taxes next year. At the end of June, all states collectively had $54
billion in their trust fund, nearly triple combined benefits last year. A
doubling of unemployment by the end of 2002 would make a big hole in that
number.
Word reaches us that the planning for the Afghan invasion began over a year
ago. US Special Forces were training the Uzbek military that long ago.
Bank of Americas profits fell 54% due to bad loans and the rest of the
industry is in similar shape. Moodys said recently that in the first nine
months of 2001, the agency downgraded five times as many borrowers as it
upgraded, the worst since 1995. They say the banks still have many losses
to write off. The loan market for non-investment grade borrowers is looking
at a default rate of over 10%. This is also reflected in the lower grades
of bonds. The spread has again increased between junk bonds and Treasurys
to 9%; its widest level since 1990. The yield spread between
investment-grade bonds and comparable Treasurys is 1.86% versus 1.70% on
9/10/01. These differentials lead us to believe that fourth quarter GDP
could be off a minus 2%. Credit ratings are a lagging indicator of the
outlook for corporate health. 82 companies saw their credit rating put on
review for a downgrade by Moodys just over the last quarter, versus 19
upgrades. The debt on companies put on review for a downgrade adds up to a
staggering $337 billion versus $50 billion in debt upgrades. The US banking
industrys net loan charge offs grew by 45% in the first half of 2001
versus 2000. Non-performing loans at banks and thrifts have been growing
27% so far this year, the same as last year but 2.9% higher than in 1999.
Bank of America still has non-performing assets of $4.5 billion or 1.33% of
loans, leases and foreclosed properties up from $4.4 billion or 1.09% of
outstanding loans a year earlier.
The latest tabulation shows that market strategists on average now suggest
that investors hold 70.2% of their assets in common stocks. According to
Zacks Investment Research of 8,000 stock recommendations made by the
analysts covering the companies in the S&P 500, only 29 are listed as
sells, that is less than 1/2 of 1%.
The Treasury cut another $6 billion in public debt by issuing only $6
billion in four-week bills.
Merrill Lynch has been sued by Unilever PLCs pension fund for not having
proper risk controls. The suit seeks damages of $189 million. If Unilever
wins the floodgates will open with a stream of mega lawsuits. They used too
much concentration and not enough diversification; they were simply
incompetent or protecting Merrills own long positions.
A bill sponsored by Senator Christopher Bond (R.MO) would require employers
to tell federal authorities within 14 days when they release a worker on an
H-1B temporary work visa and give a reason why, or the company would be
banned from hiring H-1B workers for a year. 1.2 million were approved in
2000 and employers usually ignore the rules and we have another illegal alien.
The Justice Department has detained 744 people regarding the terror attacks.
Be patient, the dollar and the Dow are nearing the end of their bear market
rallies. America is in recession and the dollar and the market will
continue their declines over the next 3 to 4 years and gold will ascend.
The dollar should drop 20-25% versus major currencies and the Dow should
drop about 50%. The current account deficit still is 4.3% to 5% and that
and lower yields are failing to attract foreign funds. High yields, or
better yet, the 1-point spread in the AAA corporates over 10-year
Treasuries, are an indicator of discounting of a potential dollar problem.
The US economy cannot return to rapid, non-inflationary growth, with
massive excess capacity and 2% interest rates. Keynesians call for ever
more stimulus, which is the wrong thing at the wrong time. It drives
investors away from America. This is borne out by the recent rise in real
interest rates.
We are surprised the IRS wasnt included in the new Homeland (Fatherland)
Security Department (HSD). Its reputation has already reached what the HSD
is about to become. Their most recent dirty trick fits its reputation
perfectly. If you are on Social Security and owe them money they will
deduct 15% from your monthly check. That cuts the average check down from
$780.00 a month to $663.00 a month. There are 232,000 Americans who owe
$1,350 each, who will be forced to pay. This, as we blow up Afghanistan and
at the same time provide its inhabitants with hundreds of millions of
dollars in free food. Thus, you might say the $312 million for this free
food for the enemy is being squeezed out of retirees, who live like beasts
and cant pay for medication. There is something very wrong with a
government with these kinds of priorities. The program began in July 2000,
16 months ago, and the only ones who knew about it until now were the
victims. More stealth taxes, from a government that is a disgrace.
Americas elitist transnational corporations just cant help themselves.
The insurance industry wants the government to cover any claims due to
terrorist activity; mortgage bankers want $60 billion over five years;
tourism wants a $4 billion bailout; airline workers want $1.9 billion;
airports seek $5 billion; New York City and State wants $54 billion plus a
WTC recovery zone and guess what, we get to pay for all this.
It looks like creditors of $6.63 bullion will either take over South
Koreas Hynex Semiconductor or let it go under. GM took over Daewoo in
order to recover its $10 billion investment.
The Keynesian adrenalin freaks are at it again. They are about to increase
fiscal spending by over $115 billion and the FED is adding over $200
billion. The FEDs monetary aggregates cause immediate response, but with
the denigration of capital it will only have a balancing effect over the
next two months. The fiscal spending rewards wont show up until the third
quarter of 2002. Again, Japans experience, over the past 12 years, shows
that both fiscal and monetary stimulus doesnt work. The result will be
stagnation at best, stagflation, recession and perhaps depression. US debt
wont be redeemed, more debt will be created and if we have inflation real
interest rates will rise. It also means higher unemployment, less
consumption and non-productive government projects. Incidentally, it didnt
work for Roosevelt either. That is why we had another war. The only thing
theyre done right is to cut taxes.
New Yorks Gov. George E. Pataki has said the state will be out $3 billion
in spending over the next 18 months. They will refinance state debt and
institute a hiring freeze as a result of the recession.
Personal bankruptcy filings in Hawaii are up 63% for the period from 9/7/01
to 9/29/01 versus a year earlier. Up also were Minnesota 62% and Nevada 39%.
Since Boeing announced a 36,000 worker cutback things have gotten
progressively worse in the State of Washington. The job market has dried up
and there are many homes for sale, but few buyers. Oregon has been losing
3,500 jobs a month since February and now has one of the highest
unemployment rates in the country at 6.4%. Washingtons unemployment is
6.1%, up 1% in a year.
The Bush administration has new mortgage disclosure requirements that will
protect illegal lending practices and shield mortgage companies from
class-action lawsuits. HUD would require lenders to spell out to the
consumers the actual cost of a home loan. At issue is the yield-spread,
premium impacted by persuading homebuyers to accept higher interest rates
without passing along the lower upfront costs. This would be explained to
the public among other costs. The spreads are simply kickbacks. The new
rules explain costs to people incapable of understanding their complexity.
Here is a flash from a subscriber: In Englewood, CO. a $218,000 home was
put on the market in May. It was sold this past week for $177,000. The
realtor said his firm has had only two showings in three weeks.
Eight people including three INS inspectors, all Mexican Americans, have
been arrested for operating an illegal alien smuggling ring in the
Brownsville, Texas area. They charged $300-$600 for arranging passage. It
is no wonder we have this tremendous flow of illegal aliens flooding our
country.
The Office of Homeland (Fatherland) Security will be immune from
Congressional oversight or judicial review or regulatory control. If you
may, above the law. Thus, it is extra-legal, judicial and legislative. Even
though George Bush will chair it it will be extra-executive. The power of
this agency is extraordinary. It even does away with protecting whistle
blowers. This new super agency guts the whistleblower Protection act and
the Freedom of Information Act. The office of Homeland (Fatherland)
Security is immune from any public request for information. It submits no
accounting, not even to the GAO. It can suspend habeas corpus, whenever it
pleases. They can detain you for years without limitations. They have
completely suspended the fourth Amendment privilege of unwarranted search
and seizure. They can seize assets without judicial procedure. The assets
of any person or news agency, which would attempt to disseminate the truth,
can be seized. There is now no 5th Amendment protection against
self-incrimination. Torture and interrogation is authorized under Section
409C of the National Security Act. They can even now label politicians
seditious and stop them from disseminating ideas. They are talking about
reviving the Seditious Publications Act of 1942 through which publications
can be terminated if they are in disagreement with the agency. What we
publish would be considered seditious and unpatriotic, because it exposes
elitist and government lies and deceit. You can expect uncontrolled
wire-tapping and surveillance of anything electronic. Then will come the ID
cards and later curfews due to more bogus terrorist acts commissioned by
the CIA. Theyll finance it all with deficit spending and inflation. There
you have it subscribers, we have been screwed again.
The Federal Appeals Court in New Orleans has ruled that the constitution
guarantees individuals a right to have firearms, but said the right was
subject to some regulations, leaving the door open for gun control
provisions. They said there is a constitutional right for individuals to
bear arms, contrary to most court decisions, which have said the Second
Amendment gives only a collective right, such as for state militia units.
It is unlikely the Supreme Court will review the decision. The ruling sets
law only for federal courts in Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.
When the public finally realizes that the FED and the government in league
with Wall Street have been rigging the markets, via the Plunge Protection
Team, theyll be fed the line that it was a matter of national security.
Well, let us tell you something; they wont get away with it this time.
The medical world has finally recognized that blanket treatment of healthy
livestock with antibiotics is creating super bacteria that are now a health
threat. Needless to say, drug companies, President Bush and other elitists
will fight to keep the program going. It should be prohibited. Twenty
million pounds of antibiotics are administered to US livestock annually,
yet 20% of all ground meat is infected with salmonella. Antibiotic
resistance is building among humans due to meat consumption and bacteria
are getting even stronger and untreatable.
Investors added $9.79 billion to money market funds for the week ended
10/16/01, bringing assets to a record $2.2 trillion. Institutional
investors accounted for all the increase, which means the public is still
frozen in the headlights. Even with yields falling we see ever increasing
funds seeking shelter in money market funds. 30-day compounded yields fell
to 2.57% from 2.73% making the I-bond super attractive.
Alan Greenspans sophistry just adds to the murkiness he finds in the
economy. Unbound confidence has passed and reality unfortunately is at
hand. The bubble that was high tech dot com spending is long past. He tells
us that long-term prospects for faster productivity are scarcely
diminished. During the boom years, 1996-2000, we now find productivity
growth was only 2.5%, just above our long-term 2% level. Mr. Greenspan is
either stupid or hes a liar. The latter is the case. The problem is the
economy. Mr. Greenspan flooded it with money for seven years and now he and
the economy are pushing on a string. Politicians and businessmen are on a
flight from reality. The economy has to be purged and it will be. We saw a
250 Dow point reversal to the downside after Mr. Greenspan spoke on
10/17/01. In the aftermarket the Dow fell over 200 more points and early on
the morning of the 18th it was even. This shows you how active the Plunge
Protection Team is in rigging the market. Mr. Greenspan said, "the economy
by virtually every measure we can see is coming back." People cant be
stupid enough to believe that. They are giving cars away to keep people
employed, layoffs are massive and he wants us to believe his lies about
recovery. We are headed for depression and Mr. Greenspan will be remembered
as one of the biggest economic buffoons of all-time. As we said before the
terror events were to cover the markets decline and deflect blame from the
real source, the FED, Wall Street and government. Now the Anthrax
occurrences are carrying on the cover-up. The public wont worry much about
the stock market if they think theyll be dead shortly. That gets their
attention. This is all planned this way. They want the market and the
economy in depression so youll be happy to accept the new world order as a
solution.
The treasury plans to pay down $8.69 billion in federal debt next week with
the sale of $19 billion in 2-year notes.
Merrill Lynchs foray into retail brokerage in Japan is a shambles as
Japanese investors refuse to do business with foreigners.
The House followed the Senate by a 412-1 vote to pass legislation making it
a crime to secretly carry $10,000 or more in cash across a US border; allow
the Treasury Secretary to set special controls on transactions with banks
or countries "suspected" of money laundering; and force banks to collect
more information about their wealthy private-banking clients and
correspondent-banking partners. This means a further crackdown on tax
havens. Only our stalwart, fearless Ron Paul, R-Texas, a longtime advocate
of keeping tax records private, voted against the bill on the House floor.
He called it a "package of unconstitutional expansions of the financial
police state, most of which will prove ultimately ineffective in the war
against terrorism" We now have fascist government.
President Vladimir Putin has advised Russian officials and prominent
Russian citizens to cancel plans to travel in the US. Now we ask you, what
does Vlad know that we dont know? When elitist Mikhail was asked why he
canceled his trip to the US he referred to Putins decree. He then said
Russia has no chemical or biological development programs, only research
for medical purposes. If you believe that you also believe in fairy tales.
Gorby also was quick to point out that he hoped from, the present crisis,
"a new international world order" would be created. As you can see Gorby is
one of the boys.
A scandal is brewing at the elitist private preserve known as Enron. Their
CFO has realized millions of dollars in profits in transactions it did with
Enron, which could have been sweetheart deals. The profits were in the tens
of millions of dollars, a partnership LJM2 Co-Investment was the vehicle
that enriched the insiders perhaps at the cost of shareholders. Other
partners were General Electric, Wachovia and Credit Suisse First Boston.
The stock has dropped from $80 to $29 a share. When questioned about their
operations no answers were forthcoming. Their return on invested capital
was over 30%. It will be of great interest to us to see if these elitists
are brought to court.
The Bush administrations attempt to insure elitist companies against
terrorist attacks has hit a brick wall in Congress. The plan is for
insurance companies to pick up 20% of the first $20 billion in claims and
us taxpayers will pick up the other $16 billion. This is corporatist
government. If insurance companies dont want to assume the risk they
shouldnt, but taxpayers should not be responsible. Without terrorism
coverage, banks wont approve loans, which is fine. If they want their
businesses to fall apart and the economy with it, who are we to stop them.
Theyll change their tune sooner or later. This is not the business of
government and the taxpayer. Our supposed institutions, insurance and
banking, run for cover at the first sign of trouble.
Massive layoffs are going to quickly bring to light the results of
hedonistic living by Americans. People would laugh and
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